Rubber prices rose into the phase of the global market is still in short supply

From the beginning of the new year, 2007, from China's strong demand for consumption and reserves so that the rubber price rose sharply again to 24,600 yuan / ton. With the summer season and the arrival of the supply, the price of plastic will also appear in varying degrees of seasonal down trend.

We believe that the 2007 quarter fell by 2 adjustment has been the fundamental goal reach places. In the second half of 2007 will once again into the main Shenglang bull market, and will continue to set record high.

Fundamental analysis

Bad is the current focus on the most pressure, to guard against You Kong. 2 quarter of 2007, China's macro-control, tightening the money supply; weak U.S. economic data, worries about the global economy has slipped; tapping the coming season, to the pressure of supply exceeding demand in the local market. However, only some of the biggest pressure on the bad, You Kong to guard against.

In the earlier ruled out and rely on seasonal demand of the amendment, whether or not to enter phase of the over-supply situation is also dependent on the weather. On the demand slowdown, if normal weather, the supply pressure. The rubber market in the future there are still variables, the first month of the next seven or eight of the weather; Second, oil prices on commodity shocks. At present, serious Jiaojia fallen too far, the supply pressure, in essence, are in short overdraft of kinetic energy.

Chinese apparent consumption strong. As the world's largest rubber consuming country, China's apparent consumption of strong performance, which has driven demand to maintain growth at home and abroad. At present, China is in urbanization and industrialization of the new phase of economic development require substantial basis raw materials. The 2008 Olympic Games and World Expo in 2010 brought about by the growth of investment on the basis of a greater demand for raw materials.

We believe that in 2007 the world's rubber market is still in short supply.

In 2007 the world's natural rubber output of 9,252,000 tons, of which 3,189,000 tons production in Thailand, Indonesia production 2,231,000 tons, China's output of 422,000 tons; in 2007 the world's natural rubber consumption of 9,296,000 tons, of which 2,405,000 tons consumption of China, the U.S. Consumer 116.1 10,000 tons, Japan 877,000 tons consumption. In 2007 the world's rubber market is still in short supply.

Dollar up Jiaojia is another important factor. A weak dollar can not be ignored is an important factor. Every time in the history of the substantial depreciation of the dollar will be accompanied by metal prices rise significantly out of the market. July 21, 2005, the Chinese government has adopted a surprise that the way to improve the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar by 2%. This will be the global economy and trade have a far-reaching and important impact of the RMB against the U.S. dollar's impact will be lasting and solid.

Technical analysis of the trend

Rubber prices rising superpower in 2006 to contain. But the rising trend has not changed. Judging from the cycle theory: the production of rubber seasonal regularity, the price of rubber each year the most productive season of the annual festival see low. From the long cycle theory, the price of rubber is a repeat of the 20th century has seen the 3 major commodity bull market (in 1906-1923; years 1933-1953; 1968-1982), the average bull market lasted a little over 17 years.

From the current round of the bull market began in 1999, will continue until 2015. To harness this super bull market, there are 9 years.

Analysis of investment opportunities

A solid foundation for the global economy, the trend has not changed. Rubber markets are very difficult to supply in excess of the expected increase in supply and demand tension is no substantive change. In the second half of this year, is expected to rubber price will be higher once again, in October 2007 the impact of 24,800 yuan / ton. Early in 2008 may also be a record high 32,000 yuan / ton.

We can make the operational plans are as follows: Hu Jiao in 0711 as an example, in 18,800 yuan / ton -19200 yuan / ton step-by-step between the positions, positions in the cost of 19,000 yuan / ton in the vicinity; overweight position in the 22,000 yuan / ton line ; The first stop-loss positions in the 18,300 yuan / ton, the location of the stop-loss limit of 17,600 yuan in / t; 21,900 yuan in the first goal position / ton, the current round of mid-level rise is the goal of 24,600 yuan / ton. If the plan in accordance with the above operations, is expected to risks and profits of around 1:6 ratio, the maximum income is 2.5 times the initial capital in the vicinity.