China is facing a test of funds crunch factor inhibiting natural rubber consumption

The last stage, the gold, to stabilize the impact of crude oil stabilized, the world's plastic wind vane of the city of Dong Jingjiao have rebounded in a row, led Hujiao strength. But then because of long speculative short-term profit-taking capital, the two cities led to the price of both resistance down period, currently rebounding glue into the city are high and fluctuated between a low of early. I think that analysis, influenced by many factors, but the plastic city will remain the medium-term regional low vibration characteristics of finishing the trend.

China is facing a test of factors

From the analysis of the medium and long-term, international and domestic Jiaojia continued to rise, growing significantly improve the efficiency of rubber, rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia set off an upsurge growing, large-scale rubber farmers turned kinds of rubber. State long-term production of plastic and rubber growing area is facing a big increase in production, of which Thailand addition to the main producing areas in the south, the north-east has more land available for planting rubber, an increase of enormous potential. Indonesia Jiaojia early in the downturn, palm oil switch Jiaoyuan land resources, due to strong Jiaojia, and may be re-scholaris beds, the rest of the country producing rubber face the same pressure to increase production, rubber production in the future will Slow and steady growth.

It is worth noting that due to the global tire manufacturing center of gravity to shift China, the China factor will no doubt become the world's rubber consumption growth in the city are all about.

By domestic macro-control of the automotive industry and the role of the tire industry, and strong Jiaojia tire industry led to the degree of economic decline, although the major tire companies can bear up Jiaojia caused by the burden of rising costs, but small and medium-sized enterprises as a result of price hikes of raw materials, Is losing money or even be forced to cut production. The reason is that there are a number of car tire business for suppliers, tire price hikes will be faced with a car out of business risks. As a result, the supply of tires led to the slowdown. Statistics show that tire production and exports increase in the same quarter last year decline in domestic rubber consumption growth slow.

Funds to enlarge the role of psychological bearish supply and demand

When Jiaojia in unilateral market continued to fall, the two sides Straddle speculation Shadie speculative funds also strengthened the psychological situation of oversupply. The reason is that technical unilateral market down, the air to attract funds to take advantage of short, multi-funding are not prepared to hot pursuit bargain taking the initiative to attract even more single, which led to the futures markets Straddle both sides tend to be more balance of power and air side . This also led to Hujiao positions fell in the course of difficult access, Phase case of low price is also difficult to support and stabilize stabilized, Jishi Kong to fund high-rolling off low-pressure, multi-funds to buy high-rolling Lowland Zhancang.

Similarly, in the spot market, the state farms are producing a glue to pre-spot hanging Jiaojia operation strategy, continue to drop Jiaojia spot. The end-consumer and bargain-hunting Spot wholesalers balanced low-volume purchases, or even a serious wait-and-see, no intention of holding inventory, price and sell stocks, leading to the spot Jiaojia is continuing to decline. Taking into account the spot market liquidity significantly weaker than the futures market, the rate of decline in Jiaojia spot as well. It is worth noting that although the producers to take a different marketing strategy, but it is Jiaojia have a role in suppressing the same.

Capital spending constraints inhibiting the production of more than

Funding crunch will curb consumption of rubber, the current international and domestic Jiaojia is still relatively high, the planting rubber industry profits, plastic serious loss of industry, rubber production industry is undoubtedly a strong position in the plastic industry is obviously in a weak position.

Farm lucrative area, the expansion of production scale does not need more bank loans, and the tire industry are increasing output without increasing income in a difficult situation, more needs to expand the production scale of bank loans to support. Radial tire production capacity in particular the significant expansion of the force required to support the incremental funding. The current rate of expansion of land reclamation and cultivation acreage, the resulting demand for funds does not constitute a serious negative impact. On the contrary, the funds will tighten automobile tire industry and expand the scale of investment to increase the cost of capital, followed by inhibition of motor vehicles and tire industry to expand investment and production scale. In particular the domestic car companies and tire production capacity is more scattered, low concentration of the industry, new projects face regulatory and lending rates of the double pressure of the resulting demand for rubber consumption growth inhibition posed, and rubber market neutral Bearish deterrent effects.

To sum up, the relationship between supply and demand of rubber bearish phase, the China factor weakening the role of psychological micro-and macro-tightening funds are to strengthen the role of bad, the city of plastic at home and abroad regional low price shock will continue to organize a longer period, a conservative estimate Will last about one month might be.