Double money rubber salon Jian3 Shu4:The gum price still has already hoped to soar

Recently, double start by tire in Shanghai money rubber the salon hold at river sea Lan hotel in the Yin City, Shanghai tire, tire industry association, Thailand Hua Tai, the United States Lai rubber company representative and several futures agent company representative attend, everyone tire industry of development, the crude oil influence crude rubber, domestic and international the supply condition of gum City carried on full of exchanges, now do a related contents a synopsis sorting as follows.
A, tire industry development condition
2004 association 45 business enterprise statistics, tire yield is 128,000,000, together ratio growth 18.7%, among them, the son noon foetus yield be 72,260,000, together ratio growth 38.8%.In the son noon the foetus whole steel's carrying heavy son noon a foetus is 16,110,000, together ratio growth 60.18%;The tire export deliver goods a value 16,100,000,000 dollars, together ratio growth 53.39%;The tire sales income is 54,000,000,000 dollars, together ratio growth 30.62%, among them, the son noon foetus sales income be 30,700,000,000 dollars, together ratio growth 65.01%;The realization profits total amount is 2,300,000,000 dollars, together ratio growth 68.36%.See from related data, the extend of tire profession still continue, especially the whole steel carry a heavy son noon foetus to extend fast fierce, export situation to still keep a prosperous growth, the tire profession announce of the profits total amount may have humidity, but the whole profession condition be still placed in positive extend of process in.
Two, in the near future possibility emergence of the policy adjust
The tire association put forward in the near future concerning reduce to don't need inclined hand over foetus consumption tax of application, currently already hair 1 consult opinion Han, inclined hand over foetus consumption tax have already hoped to decline from 10% to 3%, but in the meantime probably advertise for 3% consumption tax to the son noon foetus, if the tax rate policy appear adjust to develop tire profession creation probably influence, this factor worthy of concern.
Three, crude rubber condition in Thailand
Last year December, Thailand the RSS3 fall to 1150, the TSR20 fall to 1170, China the customer put quantity to purchase in the low, especially RSS3, but at that time to mark gum of purchase opposite and careful, this come to a decision now Thailand market two gum kind current excess fare structure, certainly Thailand domestic mark the gum price be overcast of another reason is Thailand No.20 the gum face Ma3 Lai2 Jiao and Indonesia gum of competition.March beginning, Indonesia mark gum of sale quantity rally, Indonesia new the gum gradually appear on market, to mark gum market formation pressure, certainly prop up to come from to the weather dry of misgiving and to China buyer complement rubber of expectation.Currently Thailand the market factory fight raw material very vehemence, two dish the company procure a gum source then supply give production company, past the factory has been prop up two dish company, cause since 2001, two dish the company earned foot money in the market, two dish the company do big after, occupied predominance position on the raw material, cause the factory procure the cost of raw material to promote.Two dish company concern Japan market, the price soar and then lift high price, Japan market price slump, two dish company usually not offer perhaps say stock few, so cause Thailand the film price successively increase.Direct promoted local production cost in Thailand, Thailand gum the company face of competition pressure more and more big, not only face a horse, Indonesia etc. international rival, return want to face a local rival of competition, return have two dish squeeze of company.This year beginning of year, factory purchase a great deal of of stock, but 4 beginning of the month factory stock already remain only a few, so new glue together come empress to the pressure of gum price can't excessively exaggerative, this year Thailand of the weather condition good to former years, new glue together time of city would more is on time, but new glue together the pressure of gum price for city limited, Thailand raw material price of costliness money probably can maintenance, even possibility the emergence anti- season soar of possibility.In the near future Southeast Asia more turbulence, November the tidal wave for 26 days, Thailand dry, Indonesia heavy earthquake, April match a moxa for 3 days occurrence big explosion, these factor rightness currently Thailand gum City creation some mental state of influence, but to rubber supply of materiality influence not big.
Four, for the total standpoint of condition of the market
The salon is widespread to think crude oil price to hard to say to have already seen a crest, crude oil price very possibility high, prop up formation to the crude rubber price, the Hu gum market have no many main force currently, but the Hu gum market structure be opposite reasonable, the stock on hand rise, Hu gum price just probably will rise, so should more of observation local spot market of performance.Although the gum market face in the near future new glue together city pressure, the gum price slump space be opposite and limited.Local tire factory of purchase quantity increment obvious, 71 only 15 in the business enterprise have never expand to produce plan, along with business enterprise beginning new 1 of purchase, the gum price still have already hoped to soar.The funds condition of tire business enterprise and may carry on of the consumption tax reform be a future profession development of variable, at recent want a point concern.