Natural rubber price reaches higher

Since last May, domestic natural rubber prices rising steadily, currently hovering at the price of tons of 20,000 yuan. From the situation in the first quarter of this year, the domestic price of natural rubber market will continue to run high. Natural rubber prices skyrocketing prices of natural rubber is running high since last year by the basic balance between supply and demand to supply. Last year, China's main natural rubber producing areas in Hainan Province in the first half of the serious drought experienced in the second half and typhoons, a greater decline in production, the reduction reached 30%. Hainan's main producing areas so that the output of natural rubber output last year only about 500,000 tons, more than 12% reduction in 2004. Plus imports of 1,410,000 tons, the new resources of natural rubber last year, about 1,910,000 tons, only 3.8 percent growth last year, an increase of apparent decline, while consumption of natural rubber last year, about 2,200,000 tons, an increase of 19% or so. On the one hand, supply reduction, demand is on the other hand, there have been a greater balance between supply and demand gap.

Last year, China's economic growth rate of 9.9 percent, industrial growth rate of 11.4 percent, and rubber consumption is closely related to the automotive, tire industry is rapidly developing. Last year, car production 6,153,400, 13% increase over the previous year. National tire production (including all kinds of tire) break 300,000,000, 28.3 percent increase over the previous year. It is estimated that consumption of natural rubber last year, about 2,200,000 tons, an increase of 19% or so.

In addition, in the past few years, market conditions, natural rubber prices before really low production costs, profits generally to the upper reaches of the transfer of energy and raw materials, low long-term price of natural rubber, plastic is not conducive to boost agricultural production Enthusiasm is not conducive to the stability of the natural rubber production.

Although the laws of the market from the point of view, the current price of natural rubber to face the pressure back, but the pressure does not mean that the price is bound to decline. Now the market can not foresee a lot of factors. For example, current copper prices have soared to near 50,000 yuan, from the second half of last year we all should be talking about going down, but prices did not go back.

Although the price of natural rubber may not like all the way as copper prices shot up, but the natural rubber prices will remain high price to run. International demand for natural rubber increased in recent years, with the growth of the world economy, international demand for natural rubber increased year by year. International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) statistics show that in previous years, the world's natural rubber production and consumption growth in a very basic, almost no growth in inventories. With the rising demand, supply and demand of natural rubber in recent years, international relations strained.

IRSG According to statistics, in 2004 the world's natural rubber output of 8,220,000 tons, the consumption of 8,290,000 tons, the basic balance between supply and demand; in 2005 there have been a larger gap between supply and demand, it is estimated that global demand for natural rubber raise about 5% to 8,700,000 tons, while the all - The availability of resources in the years up to about 8,300,000 tons, the gap between supply and demand in about 400,000 tons; expected demand in 2010 will exceed 10,000,000 tons in the next 10 years, the worldwide shortage of natural rubber is a foregone conclusion. At present, domestic self-sufficiency rate of decline, China's rubber consumption over the United States as the world's largest consumer and importer. According to statistics estimated that in 2004 natural rubber consumption has exceeded 1,800,000 tons, accounting for the world's total consumption of 21.5 percent. From 1999 to 2004, China's natural rubber consumption increased by nearly 80% of the volume of imports increased by 2 times. 2005 natural rubber consumption has reached 2,200,000 tons more than in 2004, up 19%.

China's major natural rubber producing areas in Hainan, Yunnan and Guangdong. In 2004, China's natural rubber production area of 630 hectares, with an annual output of 600,000 tons less than rubber. This is the 3-producing areas to achieve the greatest resources development, natural rubber output is only 700,000 tons or so. The supply of resources from growth potential, China's natural rubber production is not the potential of large-scale upgrade.

With the further increase demand, China's natural rubber self-sufficiency rate is declining in 1999 for self-sufficiency rate of 60% in 2004 down to 30%. After a few years China is expected to natural rubber self-sufficiency rate will decline to below 20%. Resources in the international market every year to reduce the world's largest rubber producing and exporting countries Thailand, the domestic rubber consumption has accounted for 10%. In 2002 the Thai government has put forward the reform of the system and the development of rubber ten strategies, which will be made of rubber industry to develop into industrial countries on the basis of the concept, the domestic rubber consumption to increase to more than 30%. Malaysia currently has major rubber producing and exporting countries to importing countries. India and Sri Lanka have in recent years to strengthen restrictions on exports of natural rubber, natural rubber exports is no longer a country.

It is noteworthy that, in recent years, the international community's main rubber producing countries are increasing export restrictions. According to the Guangdong Provincial Administration of the land reclamation and cultivation of South-East Asia and other major rubber producing countries to investigate, in recent years, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Southeast Asia, the major rubber producing countries to actively promote industrialization, rubber consumption increased, they have restrictions on exports of natural rubber. 3 of the above-mentioned countries of the world's natural rubber output of 69% of the total output of about 3 enough to shake the country to reduce exports in the international market supply and demand pattern.

What is more worrying is that as China becomes the largest natural rubber consumer, the major rubber producing countries try our alliance excluded, in fact want to deprive our country of the international rubber production, prices, market rules, such as the right to participate, In the event of a major change in the international market, will likely pose a threat to China's economic security and national defense. Address the shortage of natural rubber can not be ignored.

This year is expected to rubber market will be mainly to strong growth in consumer demand, additional resources, moderate growth, the trend is the high price shock, the former high-low post. The future price of natural rubber will be high.