Rubber difficult to stop the rise is expected to be the next "Copper"

After the long holiday on May 1, Shanghai Rubber prices out of the history of the soaring prices of rare, one-week or all reached 3 to 4 thousand dollars / ton, last Friday (26) Su Liang Hu Jiao continue trading, up momentum difficult to stop.

From the fundamental point of view, in April this year, since this round of the first-season prices rose due to strong domestic demand driven, a quarter of the national economy achieved a 10% growth rate, which is rare in recent years by The double-digit growth. Industrial production also showed the same period of rapid growth, the main rubber production growth rate to increase significantly, especially in March, the National Automobile production and sales growth, rubber exports increase, making the various types of rubber down once consumer demand again Wang. According to statistics, a quarter of the national output of tires (including all kinds of tire, the same below) 94,970,000, representing growth of 17.6 percent over the same period last year, rubber prices in the background, the increase of demand is very convincing .

On the other hand, the rubber supply is not small. Rubber production in Southeast Asia, mainly Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia and other countries from around the world, with a focus on production, consumption dispersion characteristics. Thailand and Malaysia in the near future storm weather limited the supply of rubber, domestic by the end of September last year that the enormous destructive impact of hurricanes this year's renewal, in 2006 output Hainan rubber is expected to more than 100,000 tons. China's natural rubber self-sufficiency rate has dropped to 21 percent, to rely heavily on imports of China's rubber prices have been completely follow the rubber price fluctuations. Concentration of natural rubber production will easily lead to the characteristics of rubber producing countries to maximize the interest and the pursuit of control of the supply of rubber and rubber prices. Thailand # 3 spot rubber has been reported that 2615 U.S. dollars / ton, while the center of the three major Thai market turnover scarce # 3, 100 tons per day, a serious tendency Hard Trading in a Dream, and southern Thailand, a gunman killed a Muslim tapping, People will not dare to go out tapping, more than the rebels in the south, combined with this kind of weather, international strong Jiaojia in the bullish atmosphere of the easy or difficult to rise.

At the same time, we should see a substantial surge in the price of rubber on the tire manufacturer's normal production poses a threat to rubber production and consumption is further exacerbated by the conflict, rubber raw materials has become a constraining the development of China's rubber industry bottlenecks, are expected to rise sharply in Rubber began to gradually curb demand for further growth, particularly in the domestic and international situation will become more evident, as a result of domestic rubber used in high absolute cost. At present, domestic 27,000 yuan / ton in the spot price equivalent to 3400 U.S. dollars / ton, while Japan 300 yen / kg in the spot price equivalent to only 2700 U.S. dollars / ton, higher value-added tax and customs duties to make use of domestic tire companies in Southeast Asia is much higher than the cost of Jin Koujiao Japan and the United States businesses. Domestic plastic industry will be constrained by the domestic rubber price will be in the international prices peaked.

In theory, the rise in top search is extremely dangerous, in the rubber supply and demand tension of the situation because the prices did not rise significantly change, the rubber will rise to continue. Technical point of view, Hu Jiao experienced on May 15 to 23 a week more than the flag after finishing on the 24th to start breaking up, up tremendous space, the main conservative goal of 608 contracts are expected to reach close to 30,000.

Comparison of plastic and copper rise

Hu Jiao up to the goal of guessing we may be able to draw on the copper bull market up the entire process. LME copper from the 2001 quarter 4 "911" after the start of the bull market up until May this year, peaked in early 8790 U.S. dollars (perhaps only peaked center line) were up 6.5 times. Domestic natural rubber by the end of 2001 from the 6800 yuan / ton to the present date (29,000 yuan / ton) have been up 4.2-fold, far less than copper or (simultaneous measurement of the glue, then perhaps up to 44,000 yuan / ton).

The reasons for copper prices in addition to the emerging countries such as China and India's rapid economic development drive incremental demand for increased fund speculation, the Reserve events, such as copper, also one of the most important reason for this is that the depletion of resources, the concept of speculation, the decline in copper grade And difficulties in the development of new mines, copper concentrate production costs, in order to pursue the interests of maximizing production of copper in copper prices in the process of controlling costs instead of reducing the supply of inputs, resulting in a shortage of existing conflicts. At present, renewable resources, rubber also faced similar problems.

Although natural rubber belonging to renewable resources, to expand the production cycle is longer, generally 5 to 8 years. At the same time, more hand-tapping method requires more labor. A few days ago, the international rubber research institutes IRSG forecast over the next 5-7 years, the world's rubber supply will continue to increase in short supply in 2010 is expected to rise to 820,000 tons, the supply gap in 2006 is expected to reach 260,000 tons. With the aging of age and other factors IRSG forecast over the next 5-7 years, the rubber tree acreage will be reduced, and this period should not be required for rubber will continue to exacerbate the situation.