Rubber industry experts believe that in 2007 rubber prices are expected to scale new heights

A few days ago in the "mid-term Shanghai Rubber Sharon" seminar, from the China Rubber Industry Association, Thai rubber producers, weather, and other industry experts, one after another on the future of the domestic rubber price factors, as well as the views expressed. Experts believe that this year's 2-3 quarter rubber prices in the 1.88-2 million yuan / ton to run between the adjustment, 4 is expected to re-quarter strength, in 2007 natural rubber futures prices are still likely to hit a new high of more than 30,000 yuan.

Chinese consumption potential

3 medium-term trading in Shanghai Hu, general manager of the West pointed out that China's rubber consumption will be the "engine"; "China factor" and "dollar" are the two major conflicts Jiaojia to unforeseen heights. However, higher prices make the consumer business to be difficult to sustain a cause of concern.

China Rubber Industry Association Tire Branch of the Under-Secretary-General Yu-kun on, as the tire business with large plastic, rubber consumption as a whole accounted for 50-60% of the volume, the cost of rubber tires accounted for about 35% of the cost. About the future more than 40,000 kilometers of expressway construction, the current rapid expansion of foreign car tires, an increase of the year in more than 20%已建和在建there is more than 40 projects, and China's tire exports increase in the rate of about 40 -50%. To this end, domestic demand, exports, investment will be three major factors driving the large tire production development.

According to the statistics branch of the tire, radial tire production in the first half of this year, more than 8000 million; The truck radial tire production to 18,000,000, equivalent to the output of the year 2004. Used car radial tire production 70,000,000, 21% by the year. Association of rubber in the 11th Five-Year Plan, to the Chinese tire production in 2010 amounted to 320,000,000, heavy-duty truck tires will reach 10,000 over 6000, according to the meridian of the rate of 70% of the total will reach 42,000,000.

Rubber consumption in the analysis of the current status quo, to talk about Yu-kun pointed out that the price of rubber in the first half of industry pressure. Downward trend in prices of automotive vehicle manufacturers to force the tire maker Nissan prices, but that the tire business in the second half of Jiaojia will remain at current prices, as domestic rubber production by non-up, increasing imports, increasing foreign dependence. The tire companies use futures markets less security package, making it effectively to avoid the risk of rising rubber prices. On Yu-kun said that the tire business in October Jiaojia the most concern, as it will be involved in their preparation for next year's cost of rubber.

The relative balance between supply and demand

Thailand to understand poetry Rubber Trading Co., Ltd. marketing manager of the Shanghai Lishi Jiang pointed out that under the Malaysia Rubber Board statistics, the future of global rubber production and demand for the relative balance will not be too diverse. And the last 10 years, Malaysia steady decline in acreage, the main rubber producing countries in the rubber industry have been neglected, constitute Jiaojia benefit.

At present, Yunnan stock for more than 30,000 tons, more than 20,000 tons, Hainan, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of about 30,000 tons, a total of 100,000 tons below. For the past two years, the highest, but only the amount of one month. Domestic market marked a rubber-producing areas in May traded more than 13,700 tons of the month, closing only on 6, 7 tons of 1000-2000. Yunnan Farm will be 22,500 yuan price in the near future as the bottom line. Li Shiqiang pointed out that the impact of climatic factors Jiaojia cause for concern. Thailand's climate over the past two years far from normal, the previous year's El Nino, La Nina year, the drought in the first half of 2005, 12 in the second half of plastic per month storm season floods, leading to a month can not be tapping the local, Jiaojia the beginning of this surge.

Shanghai mid-meteorology expert Ma Xiaofei, natural rubber required by the higher weather conditions. Although scholaris throughout the year can be cut mining, but its production and seasonal changes. Ma Xiaofei, said on September 26, 2005 landing in Hainan strong typhoon "David", the center of wind reached 16, resulting in Hainan Land Reclamation 3.2 billion of direct loss, reclamation area-wide rubber trees affected the rate of 100% open tree tapping scrapped 477 10,000, breaking the backbone of 2,100,000, 13,050,000 Bandao tree, the main branch off 31,340,000, is expected to rubber loss of more than 50,000 tons. Early this year, there have been a typhoon, usually appear as early as the year of a typhoon are generally high in the typhoon. So far, only No. 6 this year, Typhoon "Prapiroon" caused by a number of Hainan and is expected to August-September will be 2-3 tropical storm or typhoon in Hainan.

Integrated global supply and demand, as well as short-term pressure on the stock. 3 medium-term trading in Shanghai Hu, general manager of the West, rubber prices in the fourth quarter is expected to re-strong, set in 2007 is still possible this year, 30,000 / tons of history.