Rubber supply and demand gap will be gradually expanded opportunities for the arrival of the seasonal decline

Rubber supply and demand gap will be gradually expanded opportunities for the arrival of the seasonal decline

Shanghai rubber 609 experienced 15-day surge in the May 30 hit a record high of 30,090, down oscillation of 11 trading days, on June 20 for the lowest intraday 23,400, the largest decrease of 29%. From June 20 to start a rebound, on July 3 the highest price of 26,960, 15% of the high degree of rebound from July 4 to start a new round of decline has been in operation for the 13 trading days, in the current period of price fluctuations in the vicinity of 23500-24100, 10 On the next contract is becoming a major contract, the larger the differences Straddle, a steady increase in positions, this article follows a comprehensive analysis of relevant factors.

First, customers can do more and more speculation of the main reasons

1, the International Rubber supply and demand gap will be gradually expanded, tightening supply and demand in general, not yet the end of the bull market rubber, rubber consumption in the future, especially on the 20th marked plastic demand will grow steadily. China in 2005 all the rubber consumption has been as high as 5,000,000 tons, becoming the number one rubber consuming country. This year consumption there may be increased by 10% to 5,500,000 tons, which is the main bargain to do more than tone.

2, the international gold, crude oil, the main non-ferrous metals such as the impact of commodity futures and conduction, in particular the rebound in gold on the Dongjing Jiao has a supportive role in the international oil prices and a rebound in the high profits of more than Synthetic. Lundun Tong and Shanghai copper rebounded strongly in the near future, the high price oscillation in the running, after doing more and more popular support and promote the role of speculative retail investors dare to do more rather than short.

3, Shanghai rubber more than 30,000 tons of rubber for the period of low stock prices have fallen below 23,000 yuan a supportive role.

4, rubber prices from 30,000 yuan a view of the high price fell to 24,000 yuan, or up to 25%, compared to the already high and low, so there are many "cheap" mentality.

Second, the conclusion: more profit than the bad factors, the main trend is down oscillation

1, Hu Jiao up for the benefit factor in the May-June first, ahead of schedule reflects the overdraft, more than 27,000 yuan at high prices in the difficult early September before the break, and the other is the contradiction between supply and demand trends in the medium and long term benefit is still, rubber bull market Has not changed, but the short-medium-term bad factors more prominent and more direct, and the third is gold, copper, crude oil rebounded on the rise Hujiao greater psychological impact and popularity, but that is only indirect and external, unless there are strategic investors In the main body and the courage to take rubber goods futures in the long-term buy, otherwise, it is difficult to change the medium-term down trend in rubber.

2, rubber down on the bad element is a direct, practical and built-in. First, the production of plastic at home and abroad to enter the peak season, although still lower than in Hainan Yield year, but after all, more than 24,000 yuan at high prices also reflected into the overdraft finished in July last year, lower than the stock rubber futures 20,000 tons, the period before 16,000 price Yuan, is the view of the price of 60%. Second, the Stock Exchange of dominant social and steady increase in inventories, particularly Hujiao delivery of the subject matter for the fifth China-made plastic standard, the use was on the decline. July 7 Hujiao stock futures and warehouse receipts for the first time since the increase in the three weeks since 1270 tons and 1630 tons, on July 21 to continue to increase in 1155 tons to 35,580 tons, an increase of not more than, but reflected a clear signal Stock futures will be gradually increased. The third is the main funding to do more to retreat step by step, and short selling arbitrage camp and the gradual increase in physical delivery position.

3, Shanghai rubber since mid-July to late August to drop the main trend, fell to 610 contracts may be around 22,000 yuan.