Styrene-butadiene rubber market in the second half of cautious optimism

In the first half of this year, the inertia in the domestic economy to maintain rapid growth, the economy in macro-control to further increase the pressure, the chemical business cycle peaked obvious signs of decline, and styrene butadiene rubber market was also affected by ups and downs. From the time of the situation, in the second half of the situation may be relatively more optimistic.

Rise and fall twice in the final higher

New Year's Day this year after taking the domestic market by the end of 2004 the upward trend in the high, purchasing a good atmosphere, for the market to be less than the situation in some areas still show, but the continued weakness in the automotive industry has affected the tire industry, resulting in an overall reduction in demand The market fell steadily. Until the end of February, the raw materials market and leading enterprises risen slightly increase the bid to stimulate the market before the start, and in March in the production and imports up together, the companies offer substantial increase in a row.

From the beginning of the end of March, due to the natural rubber market down oscillation, styrene butadiene rubber market is only stagflation. At the beginning of the second quarter, the national macro-control and power in some areas affected, styrene-butadiene rubber consumer demand slowdown in some areas was once upside down, throughout the fall in April. To May, due to the relatively stable consumer demand, the main raw material for high strength, some of the profits of enterprises is very limited space, the market began to bottom. In the second half of May, market sentiment to improve gradually, the market began to rise steadily. And in June, the domestic market butadiene rubber and natural rubber market on the upward trend of SBR have a positive impact on the market at the same time, imports of goods continued to decline, supported by the raw materials market, market supply and demand good, the market offer more than 14,000 yuan / ton Juncture.

1 to May this year, the domestic styrene butadiene rubber output reached 203,000 tons, up 3.9 percent over the same period last year; imports 45,000 tons the same period last year dropped 32%; exports 04,700 tons over the same period last year, up 22.7 percent; table Consumer view of 243,000 tons, the emergence of a negative growth of -5.8%. Overall, the market has shown a few characteristics: relatively high in the market, the overall price higher than the same period last year; adversely affected by many factors, has been unable to overcome the historical high last year; import volume was significantly lower than the same period last year; By high raw material prices and tight supply to contain the domestic production capacity could not be totally free.

Six factors that influence the market

The industry believes that the styrene butadiene rubber market ups and downs, mainly on six factors.

First, the petrochemical industry is still the economic cycle on a larger role in the market styrene butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber market can be high.

Second, by the high international crude oil market, coupled with the impact of some of the time in short supply monomer, butadiene, styrene market re-set the historical record of SBR on the market strong support.

Third, the strong international market demand, high prices, on the one hand, boost the domestic market, on the other hand, the influx of Chinese imports declining trend.

Fourth, anti-dumping tax rates continue to inhibit the implementation of the Jin Koujiao focus on the influx of low-cost, domestic self-sufficiency rate continued to rise.

Fifth, the natural rubber market, most of the time and styrene butadiene rubber to form upside down, a certain degree of expansion of the market share of the Le SBR has been the loss of market share.

Sixth, relatively strong consumer demand, supply and demand has not been reversed.

Good supply and demand rising

From the current situation, styrene butadiene rubber market in the second half of this year, there are three characteristics:

The first is the relationship between supply and demand will remain good. The overall supply in the second half of the total in the first half with a considerable; anti-dumping tax rate to continue, in the second half of the volume of imports remained at a relatively low level. In addition from the main consumer - the tire industry's development trend, the total demand for tires in 2005 to reach 190,000,000, of which close to the radial tire will be 100,000,000. SBR is expected to domestic demand in 2005 will reach around 600,000 tons, oil-filled SBR consumption ratio will rise to 40%. As the major part of the processing enterprises in the expansion plan will be implemented in the second half, rubber processing enterprises of the trend is expected to run better than the first half.

This was followed by the high international crude oil market shocks, raw materials market is expected to decline steadily. The main raw materials - butadiene, as SECCO, Yamba new butadiene unit of production, domestic supply situation will ease, sustained high will be restricted, butadiene in the second half of the market will be declining trend.

In addition, the natural rubber market from cautious optimism to pessimism. Departments in 2005 are expected to have the world's natural rubber increased the harvest period, the major rubber producing countries will keep production relatively large increase, however, Thailand, rubber production to severe drought, natural rubber production does not decrease instead of increase, the three countries joined ASEAN Prices, natural rubber production in the rubber market after the season to continue to run high, and will drive up the price of styrene-butadiene rubber.

As a result, styrene-butadiene rubber in the second half of the overall market trend will be relatively optimistic about the wave of rising prices is expected to occur, but cross-time high last year is unlikely.