Tight supply and demand of natural rubber market prices

In the first half, China's rubber supply and demand overall, particularly in natural rubber supply and demand are more tense and the world as a result of strong commodity prices rise, which led the domestic market prices leaped. Is expected in the second half of tight supply and demand situation will not be any major change, the market price is relatively high. However, the current situation, the high price of rubber in new resources to stimulate growth improved at the same time, consumer demand for the inhibitory effect gradually emerged. In addition, speculative funds stir up the lion's share of the speculative premium in the preceding period of the callback market did not completely whitewash of these bubbles. Therefore, we must guard against having sung market and a very bad.

Add to raise the level of resources

In the first half, increased foreign imports and domestic synthetic rubber to support strong growth, China's rubber resources has been added to maintain a high level of growth. According to relevant statistics for the estimated 1 to a total of May, new rubber resources in the country is about 2,030,000 tons for the same period last year growth of 17.1 percent. New this year is expected to rubber national resources will be more than 5,100,000 tons, an increase of around 10%, substantially higher than last year's 6.2 percent growth.

First 5 months of the new rubber resources, natural rubber at about 720,000 tons more than the same period last year, up 10%; 1,310,000 tons of synthetic rubber or so, an increase of 21.4 percent. Natural rubber this year is expected to add resources in the amount of 2,000,000 tons more than that of synthetic rubber in the amount of additional resources to more than 3,000,000 tons, respectively, over last year an increase of 9% and 14%.

Domestic production. Natural rubber production-lag. In the first half, domestic production normal weather conditions, no serious natural disasters. To enter in April, cutting open one after another domestic production, natural rubber market volume increased gradually. However, in 2005 for typhoon damage scholaris large areas of Hainan, with the result that natural rubber production and the negative effects extend to 2006. In this case, the state-run farms this year, although natural rubber production than the big disaster years of 2005 has increased, but the bumper harvest in 2004 is still reducing. Of course, in recent years due to rapid development of non-plastic, to a certain extent, compensate for the loss of output of state-run farms. Taking all these factors, it is estimated that natural rubber production in the first half of the country (including private) in about 180,000 tons, roughly flat with last year. In the second half if no severe natural disaster, the annual natural rubber output is expected to remain at around 580,000 tons.

Synthetic rubber production increased. In recent years, China (not including Taiwan Province) synthetic rubber production growth, year after year to maintain double-digit growth in the global production of a rapid increase in sequence. According to statistics, 5 months ago, the national production of synthetic rubber 766,800 tons, representing growth of 17.6 percent over the same period last year. May output of which 153,000 tons more than last year's 7.6 percent increase over the same period. In accordance with the existing growth momentum, synthetic rubber production is estimated that 1,800,000 tons, an increase of 11% over the previous year, in the main world producer of synthetic rubber in the second.

Foreign imports. In the first half, the strong consumer demand, China increased imports of rubber, completely reversed the situation last year, a slight increase. According to customs statistics, 1 to a total of May, the country imported 1,145,000 tons of various rubber than the 18.2 percent increase over the same period last year, is expected to rubber in the first half of the volume of imports reached 1,400,000 tons, or close to the same period last year grew 20% year-on-year increases to raise Nearly 20 percentage points. By contrast the impact of changes in the base (rubber in the second half of last year, an increase of imports) is expected to increase imports of rubber in the second half will be down for the whole year of various types of rubber imports will reach 2,800,000 tons, representing an increase of 10% over last year.

First 5 months of imports pose a rubber, natural rubber imports a total of 600,000 tons, representing growth of 12.1 percent over the same period last year, an increase of the level of 7 percentage points; import 545,000 tons of synthetic rubber, up 27.1 percent, which will totally change the same period last year The decline in imports of the situation. Natural rubber this year is expected to import about 1,500,000 tons more than last year growth of about 6%; import 1,300,000 tons of synthetic rubber around the same period last year or an increase of more than 20%.

Consumer demand is strong

In the first half of the country's economic growth rate of 9%, the same rapid growth. Industrial products, automotive output increased by 30% year-on-year, tire exports increased by 15.5 percent. Affected, a total of 5 months ago, the major rubber tires (including all kinds of tire) production 165,570,000, compared to the same period last year growth of 13.8 percent, continuing double-digit growth. It is worth noting that because of the steep rise in rubber prices, consumer demand for the inhibitory effect gradually. Such as tire production in March year-on-year increase of 26.9% in April down to 12.6 percent, in May increased by only 5.1 percent for the first time the median dropped to less than 1. When the monthly production from the point of view, May tire for tire production 35,400,000, output in March fell 8.6 percent.

According to the data related to estimates, in the first half of this year, the National various types of rubber consumption is about 2,700,000 tons for the same period last year growth of 12.5 percent. It is estimated that the annual consumption of rubber breakthrough 5,000,000 tons, year-on-year increase in more than 15%, more robust consumer demand.

Chinese rubber consumption in a breakthrough 5,000,000 tons integer points, showed that rubber consumption in China has occupied the world's total consumption of 1 / 4 or so, the 5th consecutive year the world's rubber consumption in the first and second with the United States itself is far from Widened the gap.

Market prices high

In the first half of the national rubber prices rising sharply in the last year on the basis of a strong rise once again, repeated a record high. 6 to the end, the key areas to monitor the standard natural rubber on the 5th rubber prices in the 25,000 yuan / ton, styrene butadiene rubber (Rosin) prices are also tons more than 16,000 yuan, compared to the same period last year were up 4 percent. Domestic natural rubber production is running high. Hainan natural rubber producing areas in the first half of the production is not ideal, "season" does not appear that supply will be tight, latex price up to a 18,000 yuan / ton, the price of rubber has always been at 20,000 yuan / ton higher than the price.

In the first half, although the continuing rise in rubber prices in Southeast Asia has greatly stimulated the rubber tapping the enthusiasm of farmers, in every possible way more quickly and tapping out the plastic, rubber, but overall tight supply situation is difficult to change. Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and other countries to expand their rubber plantation area, but because of the production cycle, at least 6 years in the international market will not experience a significant increase in supply pressure. Therefore, if there are no major accidents led to a sharp contraction of consumer demand, in the second half of the world's natural rubber prices are still Huojin. Synthetic rubber also support the cost of high oil prices, to maintain high momentum.

Futures prices rose sharply. Before and after the Spring Festival, being a positive factor for a variety of support, the main active funds into the market to do more, futures prices reaching new heights. According to the data of calculation, at the end of 5, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the average three-month contract settled at 28,175 yuan / tons, up 55.3 percent at the beginning than the same period last year, up 109 percent.

While the tight supply and demand in the first half of the futures market is heating up the dominant factor, but add fuel to the flames of speculative capital is also an important driving force.