International Rubber Study Group analysis of the world rubber market development

International Rubber Study Group pointed out that according to the latest statistics show that the Asia-Pacific region due to the economic recovery of the world rubber consumption continued to grow in November World rubber consumption reached 22,370,000 tons, the annual growth rate of 4.2 percent. The natural rubber consumption expected to rise to 9,650,000 tons, the annual growth rate of 4.3 percent. Synthetic rubber than the growth rate slightly faster, synthetic rubber (SR) in the consumption increased to 12,720,000 tons, the annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. SR consumption accounts for about 56.9 percent of total consumption.

Nov. world's natural rubber output has reached 9,810,000 tons, but its recent growth rate of almost 10% to 3%. On the other hand, in recent months from the point of view stability in the production of synthetic rubber, and even increased, the growth rate of 3.7 percent, to the restoration of 12,980,000 tons. World natural rubber supply mainly depends on the continuous increase in the output of Indonesia, and Thailand, Malaysia and India's production has declined. Asia-Pacific region, the European Union and non-synthetic rubber production in the region in recent months has been the growth.

In 2007, with demand exceeding supply growth, natural rubber and synthetic rubber to reduce inventories. The main varieties of synthetic rubber stocks stable or declining. However, China is on the rise, which reflects its domestic consumption continues to grow. The total stock of natural rubber may increase, but some of the major consumer countries have continued to reduce inventories. By short-term tight supply and rising oil prices and so on multiple factors, from mid-August until early November all the way up the price of natural rubber. Due to the steady growth of oil prices in early November about 100 U.S. dollars a barrel hit a record high. However, synthetic rubber and raw material prices and a corresponding growth in demand that is more easily than the cost price of an important factor. Compared to natural rubber, synthetic rubber prices relatively stable, between the price difference to widen to almost 40%.

Automobile demand is growing, although in recent years, increasing concern in developed countries, but in September there was a sudden demand for the time being. This appears mainly in Asia, changes in the demand for commercial vehicles. The positive impact of growth is the main factor in economic development as well as the demand for new vehicles, the main negative factor is the market saturated, especially in the United States.

All regions of the tire production unchanged, the Asian sedans in the production of tires on the rise. "Rubber Industry Report" published on the third South American tire industry research report, introduced at the same time Argentina's rubber industry.

From the five major exporters of rubber on rubber latex in general the data showed that exports, with the exception of latex gloves, the industry no longer has to maintain its growth momentum. As a result of bad weather and the impact of the growing consumption of natural rubber latex production, consumption, import and export of natural rubber and similar industries.

As the United States subprime loans, crude oil and commodity prices, depreciation of the dollar and other factors, the world economy in the past two months to face deterioration could trigger a worldwide economic crisis. In order to avoid the economic crisis, the World Monetary loosening of the credit environment, but consumer confidence show that their actual spending plans do not have much impact on the future hope of continued prosperity depends on the market.

IRSG rubber consumption in 2007 forecast a growth rate of 4.9 percent, but in 2008 fell to 2.2 percent, rising back in 2009, 3 years, the average annual growth rate of 3.8 percent. However, North America's rubber consumption in 2007 to reduce the consumption of the situation will be eased over the next two years will be increased. Other areas as a result of the recent economic turmoil will be adversely affected. 2007-2009, is expected to NR and SR rate of increase of 3.8% and 3.7%, SR share of about 56-57%. Due to bad weather, the world's NR output is expected to grow only 1.3 percent, but 2008-2009 will regain their upward trend, the annual growth rate up to 3.1 percent. SR annual growth rate of world output is expected to 3.4 percent. In 2007 due to the slow growth of supply, demand growth could make the NR stocks / consumption ratio fell to the lowest in history, the 2008 and 2009 will rise again. 2007 is a synthetic rubber stocks lower for the time being, as opposed to consumption is expected in 2008 and 2009 World stocks will continue to increase.

The results show that in the past few years, due to steady growth in the Asia-Pacific region, the world's synthetic rubber production capacity have been restored. Styrene-butadiene rubber and polybutadiene rubber is still the most important species, other species of the application of synthetic rubber are also growing.