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Jan 2, 2009

Natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE prices in 2009 will continue to bottom on the road

Natural rubber, Zhengzhou PTA, Dalian LLDPE in 2008, international crude oil driven by the impact has gone through a massive market prices fall. Analysts pointed out that the 2009 oil shock weak global economic recession, the lower demand and will lead to natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE continued downward.
As the synthetic rubber, PTA (purified terephthalic acid), LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) are the downstream oil products and crude oil have had a significant impact on their movements. In 2008 in the first half of WTI (West Texas light crude oil) prices from the beginning of a minimum of 85 U.S. dollars / barrel in the vicinity of shock all the way up to mid-July when the highest detection on U.S. 147 / barrel, up 73%, Shanghai's natural rubber price Up nearly 10,000 yuan / ton, or nearly 50%; Zhengzhou PTA from about 7000 yuan / ton up to a maximum of 9900 yuan / ton in the vicinity. Then the U.S. financial crisis, oil prices continued to fall to the lowest in mid-December to test a low near 35 U.S. dollars, Hu Jiao, PTA, LLDPE decline by 67%, respectively, 60%, 50%.
Analysis of the 2008 annual natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE trend can be seen: the global economy early in 2008 continued the pace of growth, inflation, inflation in the first half of the global economy is facing major problems, the continued depreciation of the dollar is also boosting the prices of goods Rising. In the meantime, the use of natural rubber to open the season cut delays, lack of inventory; Zhengzhou use of the PTA and the trend of crude oil to the tent after the earthquake, fiber, cotton and textile products have high demand; Dalian LLDPE film with seasonal agricultural production of the season, and other topics are under the speculation out of the A big round of the bull market.
However, to enter the second half of 2008, with the U.S. financial crisis threaten the outbreak of the real economy to the development of the global economy into recession in the mire. In this context, as represented by crude oil commodity prices within a short span of six months staged an unprecedented collapse of the market. Despite the late introduction of the national 4,000,000,000,000 to expand the program to stimulate domestic demand to raise the export tax rebate part of the plastics, petrochemicals manufacturers in order to stabilize domestic prices combined limit production output. But in the short-term fundamentals of supply and demand difficult to change substantially, the international crude oil fallen too far into the zone, sluggish auto industry, sluggish demand for synthetic rubber and difficult to reverse out of the big market, natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE period bottom prices will continue on the road.
Looking trend of natural rubber in 2009, the yuan futures Yanwen analysis of the teachers of a global recession that would adversely affect the domestic rubber consumption. In the global supply of abundant, high domestic inventory, together with the international crude oil fallen too far into the zone, sluggish auto industry, sluggish demand for synthetic rubber, and prices keep falling. Therefore, the domestic rubber cumulative, short-term rebound in the market difficult to reverse the decline in 2009 year end seasonal rebound at any time, the market outlook is still down the main oscillation.
The PTA and LLDPE, the current market that the global petrochemical industry boom cycle will end in 2008 because the year 2009-2010 will add a large number of petrochemical production capacity to release. Petrochemical future corporate profits will decline comment on this article (0) comments on other topics to launch (0) information about Community Wealth (0), and severe cases similar to the 2007 national PTA production capacity of the PTA led to the release of corporate profits is practically nil. Lake of the new futures analyst Lili car that with the current upper reaches of the PTA plant will resume work, petrochemicals in January 2009 listed for sale on its own manufacturers of power after the view is not very optimistic, while less supply, but the thin turnover The situation has not changed in 2009 will continue the trend of market bottom.
To sum up, the real economy in recession, natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE great demand shock, and there is still downward trend in crude oil, petrochemical industry boom cycle is expected to be the end of 2008 and many other factors leading to bad natural Rubber, PTA, LLDPE in the year 2009 to continue the road to bottom.

Vietnamese rubber exports in 2008 are expected to reach 1.6 billion dollars

Rubber production in Vietnam in 2008 to 644,200 tons, is expected to export 1.6 billion U.S. dollars, ranking fourth in the world exports.
Ministry of Commerce on December 24, Vietnam attaches great importance rubber cultivation and production, the area under cultivation is now the world No. 6, No. 5 UN-production, production of single-home No. 3, No. 4 export home.
Vietnam quoted the Ministry of Commerce, "investment" reported that in 2008 more rubber cultivation in the country with an area of 601,800 hectares, the production of 644,200 tons and is expected to export 1.6 billion.

Chinese truck crane dedicated surge in demand for tires

Truck crane industry in 2002 sales growth of 66.42 percent of the platform, 1-4 for the month in 2003, has created a high increase of 45.82 percent growth. Truck crane industry as a whole to achieve 3415 sales of Taiwan's all-time high, and market development is very good, long-term prospects. Truck crane industry driven directly to the prosperity of the market bias truck tires. As the low-speed truck crane, traveling for a short time, so tire of the high-speed and durability not ask for much, to adapt to the use of the structure of bias tires. In support of the tire truck crane manufacturers were very few cases of restitution, for the higher odds of back tire plant is indeed a good news. China's auto production enterprises cranes are: heavy machinery plant in Xuzhou, lake-Yuan Group, Tai-crane, the Yangtze River in Sichuan factory cranes, heavy machinery plant in Jinzhou, Bengbu vibro Amway engineering machinery factory, a dedicated group Yangtze River depot, Changchun Special Purpose Vehicle Plant Guangdong Book Road plant 11 enterprises. These enterprises in 2003 1-4 truck crane sales for the month cases in the attached table. The table can see from the number one top heavy machinery plant in Xuzhou, and its market share by nearly 50% (large-tonnage truck crane is very high, holds an absolute monopoly), is ranked second in sales volume of 314.45 percent. The plant first 5 months of 2035 mainframe sales to Taiwan, the sales income of 1,340,000,000 yuan, also created the mechanical engineering industry the most.

Expected in the second half of truck crane market will continue to hit, especially in western China market demand even greater increase. Tire companies to seize set in the factory at the same time, but also to open up the replacement tire market, after all, social truck crane to maintain even greater amount of the total demand is far greater than the number of child support.

The three major rubber producing countries to reduce Scheme next year 915,000 tons of rubber exports

It is reported that last Saturday, the world's three major rubber producing countries to reach an agreement next year plans to reduce rubber exports 915,000 tons, and plan international rubber prices rebound from the current location of less than 25% prior to the ban on more sales of rubber.

Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the world's three major rubber producing countries, and its rubber production accounts for about 70 percent of global production. From July this year, affected by the global economic downturn, cars, tire industry demand for low impact, the National Rubber prices have fallen substantially. In response to the Jiaojia down, the three major rubber producing countries in November has already announced production cuts of 210,000 tons, although the above-mentioned plans to cut down the Jiaojia difficult to stop.

Since mid-July, the Ministry of Industry Tokyo Stock Exchange rubber futures prices from 350 yen / kg last Friday fell to the 103 yen / kg, or up to 70%. In the face of such serious situation, the three major rubber producing countries to cut again last week decided to reduce rubber exports in the next year 915,000 tons, and 1.35 U.S. dollars / kg (equivalent to the current level of 125%) below the sales price. In 2007, the three countries exported a total of 5,500,000 tons of rubber, production of about 7,000,000 tons.

Malaysia and the cultivation of foreign news quoted the former Secretary-General of the Ministry of Industry Nurmala Abdul Rahman as saying: "We will first start in January next year in the implementation of the latest measures, only two weeks away, so we hope to begin Jiaojia up."

By the three major rubber producing country plans to reduce the impact on exports, and yesterday the international and domestic rubber futures prices rose sharply emerged. Shanghai Futures Exchange, the main natural rubber price of the contract period 0903 to 9700 yuan trading at / ton.

Tire industry to reduce production capacity Thai rubber prices drop

November 27 reported that the Thai Agriculture and Cooperatives Ministry of Agriculture technical director Somchai said that by the impact of the global economic slowdown has led to large-scale layoffs Motors, for example, the U.S. General Motors (GM), Japan's Toyota Motor (Toyota), etc. . That the tire industry, worried by the impact of the economic slowdown to reduce production capacity, international rubber prices have also reduced. Tokyo rubber market closing price before the (24) also fell.

To address the problem of rubber prices, agriculture and agro-technology agency has been co-assistant secretary of the Department of La-guess to consider the requirements of cooperatives to promote the use of the Office of Cooperative Development Fund, the amount of 10 billion baht to buy rubber, waiting for future prices when sold.

The promotion of cooperative-director Deborah said that the use of the cooperative development of the Fund provides loans to be in accordance with the regulations, can only provide loans to the cooperatives. Agricultural Ministry to use the money to buy rubber, must be handed over to cooperatives applying for the loan.

Songkhla's Hat Yai rubber market prices, on the 24th film of Health at 43.77 baht per kilogram, and on the 3rd of this month's price comparison, fell 16.34 baht per kg; 3 smoke Film 45.45 baht per kilogram, 19.01 baht lower; fresh plastic Juice of 39 baht per kilogram, down 25 baht.

Demand for natural rubber is expected to rebound in 2010

International Rubber Study Group (IRSG) said Wednesday the Secretary-General Hidde Smit, in 2009 and this year's natural rubber demand is expected to shrink as a result of the deteriorating global economic situation; but the demand for natural rubber is expected from 2010 onwards has been rebounding strongly.

Smit said, IRSG's latest forecast is based on data published by the International Monetary Fund.

He said in 2009 on the pessimistic view, but a significant drop in demand will lead to a sharp rebound in consumption soon.

Smit said that in 2009 global sales of new cars is expected in 2008 from the 50,000,000 dropped to about 40,000,000 or so, but the world's new car sales are expected to rebound in the 2010-2015 period to about 65,000,000.

Despite the IRSG are not allowed to give price estimates, but the global automotive sales of natural rubber a huge impact on the market, as a result of the global tire manufacturing industry accounted for the global rubber output of more than 70%.

Smit said the natural rubber price is expected to continue to follow the trend of the price of crude oil, the crude oil and synthetic rubber between the relevance of the impact.

He said that if crude oil prices fell, then the natural synthetic rubber with natural rubber prices will drop its.

IRSG According to the latest forecast shows that when global economic growth to resume when the price of crude oil is expected in the next few years will be steady near 80 U.S. dollars a barrel.