Natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE prices in 2009 will continue to bottom on the road

Natural rubber, Zhengzhou PTA, Dalian LLDPE in 2008, international crude oil driven by the impact has gone through a massive market prices fall. Analysts pointed out that the 2009 oil shock weak global economic recession, the lower demand and will lead to natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE continued downward.
As the synthetic rubber, PTA (purified terephthalic acid), LLDPE (linear low density polyethylene) are the downstream oil products and crude oil have had a significant impact on their movements. In 2008 in the first half of WTI (West Texas light crude oil) prices from the beginning of a minimum of 85 U.S. dollars / barrel in the vicinity of shock all the way up to mid-July when the highest detection on U.S. 147 / barrel, up 73%, Shanghai's natural rubber price Up nearly 10,000 yuan / ton, or nearly 50%; Zhengzhou PTA from about 7000 yuan / ton up to a maximum of 9900 yuan / ton in the vicinity. Then the U.S. financial crisis, oil prices continued to fall to the lowest in mid-December to test a low near 35 U.S. dollars, Hu Jiao, PTA, LLDPE decline by 67%, respectively, 60%, 50%.
Analysis of the 2008 annual natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE trend can be seen: the global economy early in 2008 continued the pace of growth, inflation, inflation in the first half of the global economy is facing major problems, the continued depreciation of the dollar is also boosting the prices of goods Rising. In the meantime, the use of natural rubber to open the season cut delays, lack of inventory; Zhengzhou use of the PTA and the trend of crude oil to the tent after the earthquake, fiber, cotton and textile products have high demand; Dalian LLDPE film with seasonal agricultural production of the season, and other topics are under the speculation out of the A big round of the bull market.
However, to enter the second half of 2008, with the U.S. financial crisis threaten the outbreak of the real economy to the development of the global economy into recession in the mire. In this context, as represented by crude oil commodity prices within a short span of six months staged an unprecedented collapse of the market. Despite the late introduction of the national 4,000,000,000,000 to expand the program to stimulate domestic demand to raise the export tax rebate part of the plastics, petrochemicals manufacturers in order to stabilize domestic prices combined limit production output. But in the short-term fundamentals of supply and demand difficult to change substantially, the international crude oil fallen too far into the zone, sluggish auto industry, sluggish demand for synthetic rubber and difficult to reverse out of the big market, natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE period bottom prices will continue on the road.
Looking trend of natural rubber in 2009, the yuan futures Yanwen analysis of the teachers of a global recession that would adversely affect the domestic rubber consumption. In the global supply of abundant, high domestic inventory, together with the international crude oil fallen too far into the zone, sluggish auto industry, sluggish demand for synthetic rubber, and prices keep falling. Therefore, the domestic rubber cumulative, short-term rebound in the market difficult to reverse the decline in 2009 year end seasonal rebound at any time, the market outlook is still down the main oscillation.
The PTA and LLDPE, the current market that the global petrochemical industry boom cycle will end in 2008 because the year 2009-2010 will add a large number of petrochemical production capacity to release. Petrochemical future corporate profits will decline comment on this article (0) comments on other topics to launch (0) information about Community Wealth (0), and severe cases similar to the 2007 national PTA production capacity of the PTA led to the release of corporate profits is practically nil. Lake of the new futures analyst Lili car that with the current upper reaches of the PTA plant will resume work, petrochemicals in January 2009 listed for sale on its own manufacturers of power after the view is not very optimistic, while less supply, but the thin turnover The situation has not changed in 2009 will continue the trend of market bottom.
To sum up, the real economy in recession, natural rubber, PTA, LLDPE great demand shock, and there is still downward trend in crude oil, petrochemical industry boom cycle is expected to be the end of 2008 and many other factors leading to bad natural Rubber, PTA, LLDPE in the year 2009 to continue the road to bottom.