Rubber market will continue to adjust the road

Since July, the world's natural rubber price in bad macroeconomic policy and supply fundamentals gradually returning to the double-round under the pressure drop. At the same time, speculative capital market gradually, showing a easy or Jiaojia up the difficult situation, Dong Jingjiao lowest adjusted to 269.3 yen / kg, Hujiao contract in October to adjust the minimum 23,255 yuan / ton. Last Friday, appeared to stabilize Jiaojia signs on the current situation, in Jiaojia rebound will continue to adjust the end of the road.
Rubber City show weakness
Resumption of supply is the main trend in the near future fundamentals, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia main producing areas, such as the weather improved and political stability make the supply of pre-tension eased. Central Thailand from the three major rubber market changes in the supply of plastic raw materials, we can see that the current supply of the three major markets on a daily basis in the 200-500 tons, while lower than in previous years, a lot, but as a result of pre-weather disturbances caused by factors such as Tight supply situation has significantly improved. In accordance with the practice in recent years, Thailand in July before and after the central rubber market, prices of plastic raw materials normally experience a seasonal down trend in order to respond to the resumption of supply of rubber.
The central bank's interest rate increase, under pressure from Dong Jingjiao market continued to reduce positions, the major long been out of funds, the main short a slight increase in the overall level of position on the low side. Despite the rebound in the last week of the process Zengcang signs, but a shorter duration and the number of small changes. Dong Jingjiao market speculation on the operation of the fund in addition to working closely associated with the spot, but also by the varieties of precious metals. In the current market price of the overall weak, the market for the main spot, could not determine the main direction of the market outlook for the financial grasp of the lack of speculative funds in support of the Dong Jingjiao rebound in the price of space is very limited.
Faced with seasonal pressure
In July, domestic production in Hainan will also be fully open cut. In a normal year, in July after the Hainan rubber production will increase by 50% last year, but "David" so that the typhoon severely damaged areas in Hainan, in July this year, after the domestic rubber production will be greatly reduced. However, the production of rubber tapping season, will be in the short term bull market confidence in a certain attack. At present, domestic production in Yunnan in particular, a large number of markets on the 5th standard plastic backlog of inventory, having generally optimistic expectations, most of the rubber-producing areas of agricultural serious psychological Hard Trading in a Dream, e-commerce center Guadan price premium has always been in the futures Price, making production has shown the city has no price. At the same time, rubber and adhesive from the relationship between the dollar, the rubber at the current state of super-up. Over the years with the rubber adhesive is not the biggest spread over 5000 yuan / ton or so, but the recent spread between the two has reached 9000 yuan / ton. Domestic sales areas to give up the high price of the standard of domestic rubber adhesive and a large number of foreign procurement, coupled with the Vietnam border trade of small plastic influx, the current decrease in domestic rubber market is "even worse."
In addition, in the short term domestic demand for rubber situation is not optimistic. Due to the long-term Jiaojia hovering in the high, as a direct result of the soaring cost of the tire business, the tire industry as a whole shrinking profits, with the result that a large number of small and medium-sized tire plant have been suspended, the tire plant to reduce production capacity. The trade deficit appears to reduce the demand for tires as well as the business of having Jiaojia cautious attitude will lead to the decline.
Bad macroeconomic factors that inhibit Jiaojia
Taking a panoramic view of the world's commodity markets, monetary policy is adjusted to gold, copper, aluminum, and other commodity prices have come down the main bad macroeconomic factors. The middle of this month, Europe, South Korea, Japan announced the rate increase at the same time early next month for Europe once again increases in interest rates is expected to reach 80%. The domestic market, the State Council issued on the improvement of the reserve's policy of suppressing bad, the commodity markets fell across the board renewed the situation, China will also be expected to take further policy tightening. In the global monetary tightening macro-control background, the rubber will not be able to escape the fate of the adjustment.
Conclusion
Rubber down round is to resume the supply of the related impact of currency appreciation as well as funds from the dominant place, taking into account the main city of Dong Jingjiao funds for the time being no signs of re-entry, while further down the fundamentals of the pressures still exist, and will Jiaojia Return to the road of sustainable and rational, but at the same time still need to watch out for severe weather may bring uncertainty.