Rubber into the market vulnerable to further adjustment may be lower

So far this year, subject to weather, plant diseases and insect pests, as well as crude oil prices rising rapidly, and other factors, the domestic rubber (information, prices) higher average prices. However, the price of crude oil fell by market fundamentals, as well as weakness in drag, the spot rubber prices in the near future loose, but the market traded flat still, a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Industry analysts believe the market will be transferred to the rubber vulnerable to seasonal adjustment, and further down the possibility.

In June after the rubber price trend down into the high stage of consolidation. According to the monitoring, in July the second half of the average domestic rubber price 25,883 yuan / ton higher than in July rose a slight 0.2 percent in the first half. Among them, butadiene rubber rose 1.3 percent, SBR rose 0.5 percent, while imports rose 3 Yan Pianjiao 0.2 percent, on the 5th China-made plastic marked down 0.6 percent.

On the supply factor, the recent increase in the supply of seasonal rubber. In August, affected by weather conditions improve, the main rubber producing countries into high-yield stage, a large number of new sources of plastic made of rubber supply to the market gradually relaxed. According to the Indonesian Rubber Department data show that Indonesia 4-7 for the month of rubber production 238,900 tons, representing a 30.4 percent increase over the same period last year. August 8, Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of natural rubber to 34,575 tons, an increase over the previous week, 24.8 percent higher than on June 20 increased 105.3 percent.

From the demand side, the slowdown in demand for downstream industries. By the global economic slowdown, high raw material prices, and other factors, tires and auto manufacturing demand weakness Out. National Bureau of Statistics data show that in the first half of the national production of tires (including all kinds of tire) a total of 280,656,000, an increase of 12.8 percent, an increase of the same period last year dropped by nearly 11 percentage points; tire exports in June fell 6.4 percent; 6 For the month of the National Automobile production grew 14.8 percent year-on-year growth rate over the same period last year, down 13 percentage points. Other rubber production growth also slowed emergence.

The significant downturn in crude oil prices also reduced the price of rubber support. Since July 11 Chonggao to 147.25 U.S. dollars / barrel on the top of the peak, the international crude oil futures prices down into the channel, has now dropped to 115 U.S. dollars / barrel, the price of rubber on the role of weakening support. Recently, in the oil branch of butadiene rubber offer down 600-800 yuan per ton, a ton of SBR offer reduction in the 200-600 million.