Rubber lived high market crisis

Since April, despite the increase in the level of new resources to fall further efforts to enhance the consumer, but the domestic market as a whole rubber supply and demand situation is not loose change. In the near future, due to the depreciation of the dollar, geopolitical and speculative funds have not yet evacuated from the affected areas of oil, rubber prices will be high. But in the long-term point of view, because the pre-price factors to support the weakening of the disappeared and may lead to Shenfudiaozheng rubber market.

Generally speaking, rubber prices may lead to adjustment of the four main factors:

First, the synchronized economic slowdown at home and abroad, this is the price of rubber Shenfutiaozheng the biggest risk factor. United States and the world economic slowdown, rising oil prices, consumer belt-tightening, leading to the United States, Japan, the European Union and other Western countries the main market in depression, the direct cause of China's rubber export level fell, especially for the decline in exports to the United States. At the same time, China's economy also cooled, car sales gradually increase the pressure.

China Association of Automobile Manufacturers statistics show that the national passenger 1 to April sales were 2,456,000, up 17.84 percent, an increase over the same period last year dropped by nearly 3 percentage points. The Central sales in April fell 11.2 percent over the same period last year increased by only 7.2 percent; the country as a whole car prices fell 3.21 percent, the Central than the 1.19 percent decline. May sales are not ideal, the deserted state is likely to continue to Qiba Yue copies. This shows that economic growth at home and abroad simultaneous slowdown, particularly in the United States, the largest end-consumer market to shrink, resulting in rubber prices over the years the biggest factor in weakening the support.

The second is the gradual depreciation of the dollar bottoming out. The United States into a second loan crisis, the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates frequently, the holder of U.S. economic interests are jeopardized, it has become an important factor in the dollar. At this stage due to increasing inflationary pressures, in particular, inhibit the consumption side effects is a major problem that the Federal Reserve expected to cut interest rates to rescue the market will come to an end the current round of the more than 300 basis points rate cut may be in the near future ends.

Affected, and continued for several years the dollar may have bottomed out gradually in the second half of 2008. If the bottom began to rebound in the dollar will push all the commodity prices fall. Some analysts believe the dollar to appreciate every 1% drop in international oil prices will be 4 U.S. dollars / barrel. On the basis of the drop in oil prices will no doubt bring down the price of rubber.

Third, the high price of supply and demand of the two-way adjustment. On the one hand, prices of primary products rose sharply and strong, and gradually transfer to the final consumer goods, consumption is bound to inhibit growth. U.S. S & P's analysis shows that because of fuel prices, the impact of tightening credit demand, this year's U.S. auto sales will fall to 14,900,000, the lowest since 1995. Moreover, the increase in unemployment and inflation also makes consumer motor vehicle traffic compression, reducing the stock of motor vehicle tires consumption. This is the Chinese tire exports of rubber products such as the apparent slowdown of the important reasons.

On the other hand, rising rubber prices, leading to the high profits in the field of production, not only in Southeast Asia has stimulated the natural rubber cultivation area increased dramatically, China has made scholaris acreage increased, in particular the rapid development of the private rubber. According to the information, only the current state of Xishuangbanna in Yunnan Province with a total area of rubber planting reached 615 million, an increase of more than 2000 times more than in the previous century, 90 more than the official data released. These new part of the scholaris has entered the open cut, the market will increase year by year. If there is no serious natural disasters, natural rubber output is expected throughout the year is expected to continue to increase, is likely to achieve a breakthrough or even 800,000 tons.

Fourth, speculative funds to operate. Overall, the world's pre-excess liquidity, China's strong demand, dollar demand for the birth of massive hedge against inflation, is on a global scale and to take advantage of speculative funds, strategy and more to do on the basis of the three. With the above-mentioned changes in conditions step-by-step, as well as the market price is already priced into the high-risk, speculative fund its operation will be the main direction of the adjustment.

In fact, the market has never been just up the goods or not. At present, oil and other commodity prices up too much of, too, have reached their damage economic growth, "sung very" high risk is natural.

In the future, as China's rubber export growth slowdown, the volume of trade, a decline in rubber processing, rubber on the back of demand growth, international speculative funds has been rampant speculation "Chinese demand factor" will no longer be dazzling, and will gradually Weakened. Domestic and foreign oil, rubber, and other commodity prices rose strongly in support of the factors is not solid, if risk factors made at the same time, there will be rubber prices Shenfutiaozheng market situation.