Strong demand for rubber is on the decline

Although the high price of natural rubber, and did not rule out another new record may be, but the relationship between supply and demand trends difficult to support rubber prices continue to rise. In the medium to long term, strong domestic demand for rubber is on the decline. This decline is reflected in the following areas:

First, export growth dropped significantly. According to the General Administration of Customs statistics, the first five months this year tires tire exports grew 6% increase over the same period last year, down 15 percentage points, the level of other rubber products exports have also dropped. According to the China Rubber Industry Association statistics, in the first quarter of this year, its member companies export delivery value of rubber industry grew 17.05 percent, lower than the 2007 increase by 10.6 percentage points.

Second, domestic production growth down. In the tires and other rubber products export growth rate down at the same time, domestic automobile production is slowing. According to statistics, by 2008 a total of 5 months, the National Automobile production grew 18.1 percent over the same period last year, the growth rate slowed down by 4 percentage points. Affected domestic production of rubber products such as tires is not an ideal situation. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, a total of 1 May, the National tire production up 12.9 percent, an increase of the same period last year dropped by 12 percentage points in May increase tire production is down nearly 28 percent growth in other rubber products There are also slowing. Rubber products output is expected to slow to reverse the difficult situation this year, the annual rubber consumption is far below the level of last year.

Third, the high prices of consumer demand for the suppression. In the international market oil prices reaching new heights, the increase in rubber production costs, pushing up the rubber market as a whole, also had a great demand for their suppression. With global oil prices climb all the way, has the financial burden, one after another to reduce or even give up on the oil price subsidies. Is expected in the second half of the domestic refined oil will be gradually relaxed price control, leading to rising oil prices. When the user is facing a real market prices, high oil prices would certainly be too strong consumer demand have a significant inhibition. High oil prices will greatly increase the cost of motor vehicle use and reduce the demand for motor vehicles and mileage, such as rubber tires inhibit the consumption level. For example, in the United States, with gasoline prices close to 4 U.S. dollars per gallon "high price", more and more to You Chezu bicycle and public transport. By the same token, if China's domestic petrol prices with the international market, the large and medium-sized cities all over the car traffic volume will be greatly reduced. It is because there are uncertainties as well as other implications of this year in a row since the domestic car sales fell more than ring a few months. China Auto Market 3-year cycle of the economy or the end of 2008 to 2009 the overall auto market is likely to be difficult two years. The auto market downturn, with the attendant, such as rubber tires on a major impact on consumption.

Of course, high prices curb consumption, and ultimately self-negating the need for a process of conduction time, rather than a short period of time can be two or three months to see. Prior to that, helped by the impact of speculative capital, whether the price of oil or rubber prices will be high, and even record high.