The distribution of natural rubber and related data analysis in the near future

Recently, the trend of rubber is still down, and yesterday reached a five-month low. Is set in operation it is necessary for us to find out the distribution of rubber and related data.

First of all, the world's natural rubber production mainly in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, China, India, Sri Lanka and a few other Asian countries such as Nigeria and a small number of African countries, including Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, China accounted for three of the world's total production of around 69%.

Second, China's production is mainly located in Hainan, Yunnan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Fujian and other areas, including Hainan, Yunnan's natural rubber output of the national total output accounts for about 60% and 35%, can not meet consumer demand, For the basic needs of domestic and imported about half of the volume.

Third, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's rubber market information network, the State Economic and Trade Commission, the State General Administration of Customs statistics, and related units such as provinces and municipalities to provide a large number of data analysis showed that:

2001 World rubber consumption fell 4.2 percent. In 2002 the total global rubber demand of about 18,000,000 tons, only 2.4 percent growth in 2001. In 2003 and 2004, the Synthetic and natural rubber demand growth similar. 2003 synthetic rubber consumption in China reached 2,155,000 tons, the United States began more than 1,924,000 tons and 1,111,000 tons in Japan, the world's largest consumer of synthetic rubber. In 2004 the global rubber consumption was 20,020,000 tons, of which 59% for synthetic rubber, 41 percent for natural rubber. 2005 World natural rubber production rose 4.8%, 2006 growth will slow to 1.6 percent.

Fourth, 2006 January to August, China's synthetic rubber production, the accumulated 1,227,800 tons, up 14.62 percent, higher than the same period last year to speed up 6.05 percentage points, slightly over the previous month growth rate 0.06 percentage points. August monthly production of synthetic rubber to 158,400 tons, 22,300 tons output last month, up 15.02 percent, higher than the same period last year, down 2.79 percentage points in 2006 January to August, China's synthetic rubber production daily average of about To 5115.74 tons. Shun rubber set daily production of about 1187.88 tons. Fifth, according to the relevant departments predicted that the 2007 World synthetic rubber production growth will slow to 3.0% to 2.5%, the European growth will slow down, and the Asia-Pacific region will become the engine of growth in output. By 2020, world natural rubber consumption expected to reach 10,000,000 tons or so, Synthetic consumption reached 16,000,000 tons or so. Among them, Chinese consumption of natural rubber in more than 2,500,000 tons, Synthetic spending more than 5,000,000 tons. We can now see that the gradual reduction in natural rubber, and Synthetic increase by 2020 when the Synthetic of the total world consumption of around 60%, while natural rubber is only about 40%, will become the world's Synthetic Rubber The main consumer.

Sixth, the rubber is collected from the rubber tree gum, filtered, made from solidified. Generally 5-7 years old rubber tree was cut on a tilt. Collection of rubber trees in general can be 25-30 years. Tapping rubber trees every year for the period April-December, for the June-October season, 1-March period to stop cutting.

Seventh, the rubber is an important strategic and industrial raw materials, highly flexible and sound insulation, plastic, impermeable trap, tensile and wear characteristics, it is widely used in industry, agriculture, National defense, communications, transportation, machine building, medical and health areas and daily life, and so on.

To sum up, we can see a wide use of rubber. However, now replaced by Synthetic there are more and more. Led to the imbalance between supply and demand in the short term, so that the futures price will be suppressed.

However, there is also more favorable view of the fundamentals support prices, land reclamation and cultivation in Yunnan by the end of November will be cut to stop, state farms in Hainan by the end of December to gradually stop cutting, supply and demand in the spot may be looking for direction from the new location.

From the technical side, the current period of the domestic rubber price index and Japan are on top of technical support, the trend of having no more than two kinds of rubber, is subject to effective support to start up the price.

Operation should be based on the current support as a basis for Straddle, support, but on top of a rise in short to stop at any time to do a good job. Below the effective support and long to stop in time.