Impact on the trend of natural rubber, rubber factors Analysis

First, the supply pressure to suppress the market is still a major factor.

In November, with the rubber production in Southeast Asia country of the end of the rainy season and the arrival of high-yielding period, the foreign supply of natural rubber resources has increased significantly from China, Europe and the United States and other countries to the weaker demand, causing a large backlog of foreign stocks. Tokyo rubber futures followed the trend of foreign stock prices were falling unilateralist posture, while domestic natural rubber market turnover of extreme shrinking fixed-point library stock futures remained high, coupled with the influx of Vietnamese rubber 3L and tariffs to 5% of the large number of adhesive To Hong Kong. At present, the rapid decline in prices of natural rubber has a number of reasons including the lack of liquidity in small and medium-sized rubber traders, as natural rubber prices rising rapidly since the beginning of 2006 have been 6-7 for the month to 100 baht / kg. So high, so that a large number of small and medium-sized rubber traders due to the lack of liquidity forced to close down, the only remaining part of the large-scale traders. As a result, the acquisition market declined. In addition, the business is still a large rubber traders have reduced the amount of the acquisition. In the past period of time, the rubber price forecast to continue rising over many of the more than stocking. Plastic rubber farmers and brokers see prices come down, worried that prices will decline further, then sell a large number of stocks, resulting in pressure to lower prices. In addition, the agricultural futures markets, in particular the Tokyo rubber market speculation there is a profit-making. Another important reason is China's rubber consumption is a big country, has been ordered to reduce the amount of rubber, part of the tire manufacturers to inventory accumulation in February.

Second, global economic growth may be slowing, demand may be weakening.

U.S. Federal Reserve to maintain the fourth consecutive federal funds rate unchanged 5.25 percent after the decision of the meeting's statement confirms the U.S. economic slowdown. At the same time, the Fed also stressed that the housing market is cooling resulted in a significant slowdown in the United States an important factor. At the same time, crude oil and precious metals also weaker sideways and began to enter a downward adjustment trend. As a result of economic growth is expected to decline, as well as other macro funds may be phasing out of commodity futures markets, and therefore the price may be devastated and slowly into the search for support on the road.

Third, changes in the different stocks, still greater pressure.

Rubber Trade Association of Japan announced Wednesday that as of November 30 in Japan's rubber warehouse inventories fell about 3.9 percent to 11,042 tons, on November 20 at 11,494 tons. Nov. 20, when the stock was on July 10 to a maximum Inventory levels than Oct. 10 low of 8887 tons can rise by nearly 30%.

Domestic: more than 30,000 tons of Yunnan, Hainan, about 20,000, plus 20,000 Qingdao Exchange warehouse stocks of the dominant 60,000 for the more than 130,000 tons.

Fourth, government policies to protect Jiaojia start, but implementation can be hard to determine.

Due to floods, landslides, and other natural disasters, Indonesia and Thailand fell the rubber production. Following the world's No. 2 largest rubber producing countries announced that Indonesia will be reduced in 2007 natural rubber exports by 10% after 1 large rubber producing countries also said that Thailand may be suspended in December's rubber exports. Union of rubber in the international market prices did not have much effect, rubber, "OPEC" did not have the cohesion of the Organization of crude oil, all countries are subject to the invidious profiteering, farmers cut the rubber traders sold, the seller's offer may be reduced. Therefore personal point of view, if the latter is still ample supply, price pressure will be greater.

Fifth, technical price in neutral balance, waiting for the direction of choice.

Technical, as the precious metals and energy futures drop on Gum in the key resistance at 220 yen located under pressure, plastic consecutive day to close at 209.3 yen, down 5.7 yen. Hu Jiao main RU0703 by the downward trend line and the early low of repression, the period of disruption down prices rebound, but in the short to medium-term moving average support by the Department, concussion consolidation of the possibility of having more.

Recommendations based on short-term operation, not overnight positions. Wait for the medium-term rebound in prices after finishing.