Analysis of the situation in rubber prices forecast

To enter in August, due to the gradual recovery is expected to supply as well as technical adjustment due to the pressure of international and domestic rubber market fell quickly on the trend. The popular market from the early bullish sentiment in just two weeks time to put a sudden change in mood: the futures market long positions in a row, decreasing the total positions; manufacturers in the spot market purchases become abnormal cautious during the early rise Strategic goods store traders also have to find a suitable off-load stock price. All the signs seem to indicate that natural rubber in the bull market has come to an end, however, is not the case.

Tight global supply situation has not changed

With the main rubber producing areas of the rainy seasons, the supply began to be restored, the market generally expected for the month, 10 of the world's natural rubber supply situation will change. However, the need for a renewed emphasis on the issue is that in 2005 Thailand 20% of the production has become a foregone conclusion, even shortly after the resumption of supply, but some of its production needs only to correspond to the price of a fresh impetus on. Thailand imports as a result of the need to fulfill the needs of the contract, and its cash supply has been discontinued, China, Thailand has withdrawn from the ranks of the major importing countries. China and therefore demand for cash to begin the second largest rubber producing country Indonesia, the Indonesian market in natural rubber price trend will be around the next phase of the world's natural rubber market development component.

8 Indonesia in mid-late into the winter, the leaves will view the arrival of natural rubber production this season than normal to reduce the period of about 30%, according to the annual average of 175,000 on the average number of leaves a view to its normal production can only To maintain 12 to about the level of 130,000 tons. Therefore has a large number of pre-from China, Japan and Taiwan on the 20th of the standard plastic orders of the Indonesian market, most likely in March 9, 10 supply crisis. Indonesia this year, as Thailand did not appear cut, but in the face of a large number of orders, the market's limited supply will be difficult to meet the needs of a large number of buying.

The world is still very low inventory levels

This year the world's official rubber stocks at a very low level, the decision to stage the downturn is difficult to maintain a longer period of time. Thailand, China, Japan, the United States and other official reserves are still at low levels of inventory, Thailand is still no worry for the supply of inventory, and China, with the price decline, traders in the hands of the early accumulation of inventories was also released in a process The Shanghai Stock Exchange as a whole is still at 1 million tons of capacity to the level of non-Japanese rubber stocks have dropped since 1963 to its lowest level since statistics.

Rubber prices in the near future phased down, is purchasing a large number of enterprises should be a critical period. However, we understand the situation, the current business continues to maintain the current strategy is to buy the procurement, inventory turnover of enterprises is still very low, to buy or not buy up the psychological and purchasing enterprises in the current atmosphere of wait-and-see more strong, in fact, this is a very The risk of purchasing psychologically. From the bull market in the past, both the metals market, or the energy market, once the end of the price adjustment, followed by the launch of rising prices will be even more fierce. Rubber once again launched a new round of price increases, market sources will supply the first round of price increases even more tense when companies will have to bear more expensive price.

Industrial structure to maintain a strong reminder

From 2005, the world's commodity markets as a whole to run the trend, the slow restoration of the supply of industrial products and the rapid restoration of the supply of agricultural products between the occurrence of a departure from the trend obvious. With copper, crude oil represented by metals and energy markets, continue to maintain a strong bull market, and with soybeans, wheat, corn represented by the obvious weakening of the agricultural products market. With regard to agricultural products and industrial properties of natural rubber double, the restoration of the supply difficult to achieve in a short period of time.

As a result, the auto industry as a result of the rapid development brought about by the strong demand for rubber pattern will not change in a short period of time. Rubber of the value of re-positioning in the bull market in the current round is expected to achieve. We believe that the banner would not fall in crude oil, rubber prices do not drop. The high price of crude oil will restrict rubber down the rate of decline. Rubber and crude oil prices mainly reflected in the correlation with the Synthetic and natural rubber prices relations, as oil prices climb up, the current prices are also rising in tandem with the Synthetic and Synthetic present in the butadiene rubber prices once again rose to natural On the rubber. If oil prices continue to rise, there will be a part of the Synthetic irreplaceable to buying natural rubber market.

Rubber market price analysis of the position

Hu Jiao futures in the near future the relative resilience reflects the relative prices have come down to a reasonable position, the over-Shadie have been desirable. The international market, the glue in a row on weak fundamentals in addition to the factors, there is also the appreciation of the yen against the dollar factors. The international spot market, the current Route Yan Pianjiao Thailand have dropped to 1650 U.S. dollars / ton, while Indonesia on the 20th has also been marked plastic back to 1410 U.S. dollars / ton, the international spot market has to offer the appropriate level of corporate procurement, supply and demand situation in the world No substantive changes in the premise, buy now will be involved in a very good choice, I believe the price will not stay too long.

Hu Jiao futures in August ushered in a rational adjustment cycle is expected in August to late September to the end of the adjustment, we will see the rubber market, surging more bullish. Once the situation to stabilize, as well as strategic intervention in November next year contract in January will be a good choice.