According to the latest analysis predicts that by 2008 China's butadiene rubber industry's growth rate will be slightly lower than the lower reaches of the growth in consumer demand, product supply gap of up to 30,000 to 50,000 tons. If you take into account a number of producers of raw materials and devices may be a result of their own problems and led to the interruption of production factors such as supply and demand gap could be bigger.
Production and consumption in the world
As China's tire industry in particular, all-steel radial tire and rubber industry, the rapid development of the BR's rapid increase in demand, China has become second only to the United States the world's second largest butadiene rubber production and consumption country.
From 2000 to 2004, China's butadiene rubber output was 313,400 tons, 334,100 tons, 341,200 tons, 390,600 tons, 390,700 tons; apparent consumption was 32. 400,000 tons, 351,400 tons, 362,300 tons, 425,100 tons, 468,000 tons; imports were 45,200 tons, 45,300 tons, 52,800 tons, 64,000 tons, 107,000 tons; exports were 34,600 tons, 28,000 tons, 31,700 tons, 29,500 tons, 36,000 tons. In 2004, due to the shortage of high-priced raw materials, development of the industry by restricting domestic production slowdown.
At present, a total of 7 sets of domestic butadiene rubber plant with a total production capacity of 436,000 tons / year. Among them, Sinopec Group 4 sets, for a total production capacity of 306,000 tons / year, accounting for 70.2 percent of the domestic total production capacity; in the oil group accounted for 3 sets, for a total production capacity of 130,000 tons / year Accounted for 29.8 percent of the national total capacity.
7 domestic butadiene rubber producers, Yue, Jinzhou company since early 2005 but failed to stop the continued supply of goods and other production companies are varying degree of atrophy. At the same time, increasing imports, imports of goods have penetrated into all regions of the country. At present, domestic market supply companies mainly in eastern China, followed by the north, south China, northeast China, the flow of products have a certain focus.
As the plastic modifier, as well as increasing the amount of tire industry of low-cis-butadiene rubber demand is rising gradually, and there is no large-scale domestic production of low-cis-butadiene rubber plant, a high degree of dependence on imports, since the beginning of 2003 BR Rubber imports rose significantly to the low cis-butadiene rubber-based, have been accounted for when the domestic supply of 14%; imports in 2004 rose sharply to 107,000 tons, accounting for the year domestic supply of 21.5 percent.
Tire is the first major consumer
China's butadiene rubber consumption concentrated in the area of the tire, the consumption of 324,000 tons; shoe, the consumption of 45,000 tons; Liche Tai, the consumption of 28,000 tons; plastic modifier , The consumption of 44,000 tons, as well as the hose tape, and so on.
Tire butadiene rubber industry is the largest consumer in the field, the amount of total domestic consumption accounts for about 69%, 66% higher than the world average. Footwear industry is a traditional butadiene rubber, the second largest area of spending, accounting for about butadiene rubber of the total consumption of 10%, but is now part of TPR, EVA, and other alternative products. BR also can be used as HIPS, ABS the impact modifier, the current consumption ratio of close to 10%, and with the domestic PS, ABS production capacity increases, the proportion of consumption is gradually increasing. Li Chetai Although the natural rubber industry applications still dominant, but the proportion of synthetic rubber are also on the rise. Butadiene rubber band in the transport, Triangle, hose, and other industrial products also occupy a certain proportion of consumption.
In 2008 the gap between supply and demand is still small
In mid-July 2005 to the end of August, the expansion will increase Daqing butadiene rubber 30,000 tons / year capacity, total production capacity will reach 80,000 tons / year; and petrochemical Takahashi (joint venture) company in 2006 in Caojing development plan On the new 100,000 tons / year SSBR multi-function devices, including 40,000 to 60,000 tons / year low-cis-butadiene rubber plant, with its launch of the ABS device support. And it is expected that by 2008, domestic butadiene rubber total capacity will reach 480,000 to 510,000 tons or so.
However, according to international and domestic macro-economic situation and prospects for the development of the automotive industry forecasts, from 2006 to 2008 is expected to butadiene rubber demand in the main point of tires, plastic modifier, in areas such as rubber, butadiene rubber demand will average 4% The rate of growth. According to estimates, in 2008 China's butadiene rubber, the total demand will reach 530,000 to 540,000 tons, there are still gaps in the supply of 30,000 to 50,000 tons.
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Oct 30, 2008
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