China in the second half of the natural rubber market outlook

In the first half of this year, the domestic rubber market situation is good overall, Gouxiaoliangwang. At the same time, are influenced by many factors, increasing pressure on resources supply, market price severe concussion, and by the end of last year to be broadly consistent with the judge. In the second half of the natural rubber market be? Preliminary analysis of the forecast, if not unexpected, should show the following characteristics: First, consumer demand remains strong despite Compared with the previous year, this year's national macro-control policy context has changed: the shift from deflation to guard against inflation . The departments concerned have taken measures to tighten money supply and so on, the rubber market speculation to feel a certain amount of pressure on the policy, some out of the bubble. However, the strong growth of Chinese rubber consumption have not changed, the authenticity of the consumer is not affected. In the first 4 months, the National tire production 81,910,000 for the same period last year grew 18%, maintained a high growth rate. From the second half of the situation, the State Council, it is necessary to protect the good momentum of economic development, the national economy will also be expected to maintain a rapid growth rate, the car is not a small-scale production, significant increase in road transport, rubber products exports also Active. In addition, from a variety of rubber consumption structure, the state again in the near future to strictly limit the overloading of the road, the objective will be to stimulate the use of bias tires to increase the domestic standard # 5 plastic consumption. Rubber prices decline, but also conducive to increasing the use of rubber consumption. All this makes the second half of the domestic rubber consumption to continue strong growth, not the national macro-control and a sharp contraction. Preliminary estimates, in the second half of Chinese natural rubber consumption will not be less than 900,000 tons, an increase of 10%. Second, the supply of resources is not a small pressure in the second half of the supply of resources in the following aspects: 1. The new plastic is being listed. By the climate and geographical conditions, China's natural rubber output in the main part of the realization of the second half, accounting for about three-quarters of the year's low yield. For more than two years of rising prices and stimulate domestic production of rubber growers, natural rubber production will increase steadily. It is worth noting that this year's domestic production of synthetic rubber strong growth. The cumulative January-April, output reached 485,000 tons, representing growth of 20.3 percent over the same period last year. The new increase in the Consumer share of rubber, synthetic rubber have been more diverted. This situation is expected in the second half will be no major changes in the price of natural rubber on the high side of the market competitiveness will be further weakened. 2. Imports to keep a larger scale. China 2004 natural rubber import quotas have been liberalized, import control has been greatly relaxed. The first 4 months of this year, China imported a total of the various types of natural rubber (including latex, the same below) 440,000 tons, a monthly average of 110,000 tons, close to the general level of import in the same period last year. Subject to a number of factors, rubber products used by enterprises Jin Koujiao far below the actual cost of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's futures contract price, far below the current spot price in the domestic market. If the second half of domestic natural rubber futures and spot prices remain at present levels, then the rubber enterprises through various channels but also the use of more low-Jin Koujiao, Jin Koujiao will also take on the main domestic consumer market share. In this case, the natural rubber is estimated that the imports will not be lower than the level of last year, of which imports in the second half of the more than 600,000 tons. 3. Stock dominant "rescue." To the end of May, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's dominant stock more than 200,000 tons, this part of the natural rubber in the second half of the year will be a considerable number of futures from the warehouse into the spot market. First place in the futures warehouse for too long, made of plastic for more than 12 months, Jin Koujiao more than 18 months, no longer meet the conditions of delivery. Second, if the futures prices in the second half of fallen too far, will also attract a large number of cash and rubber enterprises to enter the futures market purchases. Due to this part of a huge quantity of rubber (as much as 250,000 tons, nearly half of the annual output), a single species (mainly social needs of the less standard plastic # 5), the lower the price (not lower than the spot price of users there will be no Attractive), and the market focused on the time (in the second half months). This calculation, natural rubber in the second half of the amount available resources to achieve it will be possible in the 1,000,000 tons more than the same period in excess of the social demand. Third, the market price of severe shocks: On the one hand, the relationship of supply exceeding demand in the market prices continued to callback requests. Pre-natural rubber prices fell sharply despite a 3000 yuan / ton or so, but it did not meet the requirements of supply and demand fundamentals, the most obvious is based on the stock futures continued to grow. On the other hand, are influenced by many factors, the financial strength to support the wishes of the very strong bull, plus the structure of the position, the relative concentration of long, short and dispersed, "more money than the goods," the characteristics of the market is also conducive to long Bicang . This pattern will make the second half of the price will be inevitable severe concussion. We would also like to see in the future of China's natural rubber consumption is still in a strong growth pattern, the pace of world economic growth is also accelerating. Moreover, the supply of natural rubber affected by natural conditions, a longer cycle of expansion, it is difficult in the short term dramatic increase in supply. China's emergence marked # 5 plastic situation of supply exceeding demand, it is only under special circumstances of the emergence of local problems, not universal. At the same time, high oil prices on the international market, the cost of production of synthetic rubber rising prices for natural rubber is also a support. All this makes the price of natural rubber will not enter the "winter." Natural rubber prices fallen too far, the futures will allow storage of a large number of dominant stocks, real quickly into the field of production and consumption. As a result, the rubber market will greatly alleviate the pressure on the stock, from the real supply and demand fundamentals, rather than funds futures prices reach the bottom surface of the rebound.