In the first half of 2005, China Natural Rubber Market Analysis

In the first half of this year, the domestic rubber market situation is good overall, Gouxiaoliangwang. At the same time, are influenced by many factors, increasing pressure on resources supply, market price severe concussion, and by the end of last year to be broadly consistent with the judge.

In the first half of the domestic rubber market analysis

Preliminary analysis of the forecast in May of this year, the domestic rubber consumption is more robust, new resources, only a slight increase in market supply and demand improved digestion and a large number of stock futures, which led to pre-rubber prices rebound. Specifically, in the first half showed the following characteristics:

First, a slight increase in new resources

In the first half of this year, China's rubber resources to add the same period last year largely unchanged, a slight increase. According to statistics, 1-5 this year, national resources for the new rubber is about 1,710,000 tons, more than 1% increase over the same period last year. In the first two months, new rubber resources more year-on-year decline. From the beginning of March, new resources and gradually increased in May only to have been completely reversed the decline in the same period last year.

GDP: While the beginning of May, domestic natural rubber producing areas step by step into the production season, but the largest producing areas in Hainan, some time ago suffered a serious drought, natural rubber production and market volume has been greatly affected, it is estimated that the country Production of about 55,000 tons.

Synthetic production increased slightly. In the first half of this year, the new limited production capacity and supply of raw materials, synthetic rubber production in the country to increase much. According to statistics, the first 5 months of this year, the national production of synthetic rubber 630,800 tons, only 4.7 percent increase over the same period last year.

January-May, the national rubber production is about 740,000 tons more than last year's 3.4 percent increase over the same period.

Second, foreign imports

Rubber imports declined slightly. According to customs statistics, 5 months ago, the country imported 968,400 tons of rubber types of the same period last year decreased 0.8 percent.

According to customs statistics, imports of rubber constitute, in 2005 from 1 to May natural rubber imports were 535,000 tons, up 4.6 percent year-on-year, in May import 87,800 tons of natural rubber, dropped 20,000 tons; 1 to May Import 428,000 tons of synthetic rubber, the same period last year decreased 6.8 percent, in May import 84,500 tons of synthetic rubber, also dropped more than 20,000 tons.

Third, consumer demand remains strong

Despite last year and this year the national macro-control policy context has changed: the shift from deflation to guard against inflation. 2 departments in the quarter adopt a number of macro-control measures taken by the monetary tightening measures such as rubber market speculation to feel a certain amount of pressure on the policy, some out of the bubble. However, the strong growth of Chinese rubber consumption have not changed, the authenticity of the consumer is not affected. Various economic indicators continue to run high during which, in particular with the rubber consumption is closely related to the production of rubber tires, and so has maintained rapid growth. According to statistics, the first 4 months, the National tire production 81,910,000 for the same period last year grew 18%, maintained a high growth rate. January to May this year, the National tire production 117,350,000 the same period last year, up 27%; tire production in May of which 26,640,000, an increase of 28.6 percent.

In rubber production to stimulate growth, in May before the rubber consumption continued to show strong growth pattern, it is estimated that close to 2,000,000 tons, an increase of more than 15%.

Fourth, the market prices of both movements

Tapping into the period, despite the new glue to gradually increase the amount listed, but the main producing areas of serious drought, there are more difficult to increase production, the price of natural rubber to form a strong support; synthetic rubber because of high prices, to a certain extent, curbed consumer demand, Market prices continued to go down. According to the data show that in May, the key areas to monitor the standard natural rubber on the 5th of plastic, the average price of about 12,940 yuan / ton, roughly flat with last month.

Not much increase in production because of drought, natural rubber prices in all areas risen. According to statistics estimated that in April in Hainan, Yunnan and the two major rubber producing areas last month were up 2.45 percent and 0.49 percent; Chugeng this year is up 12% and 5.3%.

Despite the new listing a large number of plastic pressure, but by improving the supply and demand support, Shanghai Rubber futures prices strengthened again. It is estimated that 5 to the end of this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange for three months (on 6, 7, 8), the average contract settlement price of 13,482 yuan / ton.

In the past 5 months the overall market situation, domestic natural rubber price has gained momentum, synthetic rubber prices remained low, the two major types of rubber price has been reduced, but still higher than the price of synthetic rubber natural rubber prices, the average price at 800 / Tons.

Fifth, rubber prices in June rose

According to the Ministry of Agriculture to monitor the Bureau of Reclamation, in June 2005 domestic natural rubber and rubber producing countries in Southeast Asia, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia and the three countries SIR20 standard RSS3 rubber prices in May has been a big rise. Hainan main producing areas by the beginning of the transaction price of 13,000 yuan / ton at the end of the up to 14,786 yuan / ton, the increase was 13.74 percent, the highest price reached 14,850 yuan / ton; main producing areas in Yunnan Province by the beginning of the transaction price of 12,710 yuan / ton up To the end of the 14,496 yuan / ton, the increase was 14.05 percent, the highest price reached 14,600 yuan / ton; Hainan, Yunnan and reclamation area between the two places both transaction volume, into the middle of June, the daily turnover of half a month in a row in 1500 t Above.

Thai RSS3 from the beginning of 1400 U.S. dollars / ton up to the end of 1515 U.S. dollars / ton, Indonesia SIR20 rubber from the standard early in June of 1225 U.S. dollars / ton up to the end of 1325 U.S. dollars / ton.

Jiaojia analysis of the rise: in mid-June on the production, sales rose a moderate price zones, mainly due to the domestic business-to-tire products of natural rubber products, a substantial increase in demand. Though the main producing areas in severe weather eased, output gradually picked up, but the main producing areas in Southeast Asia led to persistent drought sharply reduced output at the same time a large number of domestic social stock was digested products flow of business enterprises and rubber stocks dropped sharply on the whole supply tension . In mid-June after the market fell Chonggao adjusted by the price of 14,200 yuan / ton fell to 13,700 yuan / ton; into the second half of the month, mainly due to the rising price of plastic country, Hainan, Yunnan, the two major natural rubber reclamation area of the massive amount of cash transactions , The main sales areas of domestic natural rubber prices also rose.

Natural rubber import costs

At present, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, natural rubber contract for the delivery level: a homemade SCR5 Rubber standards in line with the national standard GB8081 ~ 8090-87, the import Yan Pianjiao RSS3 with "natural rubber level of quality and packaging standards of the International (Green Paper)" (1979 version). As the imported products are more involved in the process, so the higher cost of imports Yan Pianjiao RSS3 the cost is as follows:

First, the cost of imported natural rubber formula

Import prices of imported Cost = (that is, quote) × exchange rate (RMB against the U.S. dollar) tariff + + + other value-added tax costs

1) Thailand on the assumption that China's dollar was quoted at A / t, sea freight and insurance for 40 U.S. dollars / ton, if the payment is the long-term (usually one month), then offer to raise 10 dollars / ton. Value B = (A +40) * 8.3 = 8.3A +332

2) natural rubber import tariff for C (20%) = B * 20% = 1.66A +66.4

3) value-added tax D = (B + C) * 17% = 1.6932A +67.728

If the delivery for the migration, the provisions in the special invoices for value-added tax, import tax rates of 17% applies to rubber, 13% tax rate applies to domestic.

4) the cost of other E: Hong Kong goods, such as lifting costs 200 yuan / ton, importers of rubber into the funding of interest, miscellaneous transportation, storage, and so more or less the cost of 150 yuan / ton.

Second, the cost of natural rubber imports = B + C + D + E

= (8.3A +332) + (1.66A +66.4) + (1.6932A +67.728) +350

= 11.6532A +816.128

≈ 11.7A +816

According to this formula, South-East Asia in general offer corresponding to the cost of imports:

South-East Asia offer


China's import costs


South-East Asia offer


China's import costs

(U.S. dollars / ton)


(Yuan / ton)


(U.S. dollars / ton)


(Yuan / ton)

800


10176


1450


17781

900


11346


1500


18366

950


11931


1550


18951

1000


12516


1600


19536

1050


13101


1650


20121

1100


13686


1700


20706

1150


14271


1750


21291

1200


14856


1800


21876

1250


15441


1850


22461

1300


16026


1900


23046

1350


16611


1950


23631

1400


17196


2000


24216

Domestic natural rubber in 2005 will face a challenge

By the year 2000, as a result of active cross-border trade and smuggling of fake imports and the impact of rubber, rubber made at one time been seriously affected. As a result, countries in the fight against smuggling at the same time, the natural rubber import quota license management. In recent years, China's auto industry in particular industries, the demand for natural rubber imports and increase every year. In 2003, China's natural rubber import quota to 850,000 tons, as of the end of July 2003, a total import volume has reached 670,000 tons more than the same period in 2002 grew 50.2 percent. According to each of the past, the distribution of imports, at the end of the second year before the Chinese New Year should be the natural rubber imports peak, and this time it is also the domestic manufacturers of plastic season. However, because the first half of 2003 "SARS" epidemic and the impact of rubber production period of abnormal weather, in 2003, China's rubber output will be no more growth. Rubber by the imbalance between supply and demand stimulation, in June 2003, the Mainland has been very active rubber futures market, prices in a short period of a month, up nearly 3,500 points. Traditional domestic rubber prices in the spot market also rose to a strong start at about 13,000 yuan / ton.

At the same time, the world's rubber market in the United States and Japan due to the economic recovery, as well as rubber and reduce the inventory of the strong start. Southeast Asian rubber production in the country from China to the world's main consumer countries to stimulate demand, coupled with frequent typhoons in 2003 the impact of weather, production and marketing conflicts, rubber prices rose. In this case, the Indonesian Rubber Association recently issued a report forecasting that if the abolition of import quotas for China, the world market, rubber prices will rise.

However, as the final rubber consumer, domestic rubber producers are under pressure from both domestic and foreign pressure, substantially lower profits. Following the 2002 national economic and trade authorities to apply lower tariffs and increased import quotas, in August 2003, the China Rubber Industry Association to the new State Council Tariff Policy Commission of the application, appeal to the national natural rubber import tariff reduction. As the import tariffs is unlikely to drop from the regulation of the market and domestic production to meet the needs of business point of view, it is estimated that the country will be taken by the relevant departments to increase natural rubber import quota of measures to ease the domestic pressure on the rubber market. At the same time, taking into account the domestic enterprises with plastic and concrete to prevent the inflow of more Jinkou Jiao increase in the stock futures market, I believe that the increase in import quotas in the processing and feed use should account for the vast proportion.