Natural rubber supply strain acceleration gum price ascension

Former years May, local gum City supply gradually loosen, the gum price continuously walk weak, but this year May, local gum City supply don't increase anti- reduce, the gum price be also gradually strong, among them Hu gum from 4 the end of the month up to now already significant soar to be close to 1000 dollars.Domestic and international supply in the gum City strain, is a gum price to rise the most direct reason in the near future.

The domestic produce area drought to aggravate

From last year September, because of sea south province have no tropical zone current of air of influence, the rainfall show Zhao decrease and create a hundred years come to same period minimal rainfall record.Plus a near segment time keep on the heat little rain, drought the feeling continue to spread, to the Ken area natural rubber produce creation severity of negative influence, natural rubber produce loss severity.According to incompletely statistics, Ken area existing 618,000 acreses open to mow a gum park because of dry with cold harm influence haven't openned to mow, share total comparison of plant the area close 20%;Have already openned to mow the gum tree row gum falsely often, the yield down sharply and have of the gum tree even appear Huang2 Ye4 Bing4 shed leaves.Whole Ken the area be total to have 382,000 acres of gum park because of dry compelled rest to mow, exceed the natural rubber plant 10% of area.This time dry keep on time of long, dry disaster area of big, dry influence degree of deep, is hundred years come rare, from here but not difficult calculate, this year sea south produce an area natural rubber produce will possibility emergence 10% is to 20%ly more significant output reduction, according to sea south agriculture Ken year plan produce 235,000 ton of natural rubber yield calculation, the output reduction range will attain 23,500 ton ～s 47,000 tons, from here to the Qiong Ken stock on hand gum price trend in the gum City constitute stronger support function.

Produce the area Pin in the gum City to rush to buy now

May, according to former years the Qiong Dian produce area to produce the periodic regulation of the gum seasonal, new glue together city supply gradual expand, stock on hand supply from strain gradually abundant, but this year because of dry the disaster weather function, the Qiong Dian produce the area total amount in the gum City to appear on market supply to cut to more than 10,000 tons and more than 16,000 tonses respectively and haven't clinched a deal of hang list quantity repeated appear on market a factor.But among them the Qiong Ken turnover in the gum City attain more than 8000 tons, clinch a deal ratio more than 80% and appear among them 9 trade the day turnover equal a sturdy situation that hang list's quantity, elucidation the stock on hand hang list quantity drive consume company aggressive rush to buy of sturdy characteristic, the gum price be soar by 12500 dollars to 13500 dollars and the rise attain 1000 dollars.The Dian Ken turnover in the gum City is also gradual to expand and clinch a deal ratio continuously exaltation, the gum price be soar by 12300 dollars to 13100 dollars and the rise attain 800 dollars.Opposite with this should of BE, Hu gum in the near future the contract RU506 period the price be soar by 12600 dollars to 13300 dollars, rise is 700 dollars, main force the contract RU508 period the price be soar by 12700 dollars to 13600 dollars, rise is 900 dollars.From here contrast manifestation, the Qiong Dian produce the area stock on hand gum price a rise exceed Hu gum rise, local natural rubber period now two cities maintenance allied move to soar a sturdy trend characteristic, and part the Qiong Dian produce the area stock on hand gum price in the gum City to soar direct push the Hu glue together to rise.

Local need in the gum City is fierce to increase

1~4 month domestic add a rubber resources quantity 1,340,000 tons, together ratio cut 0.3%, but total amount need consume the quantity then is above for 1,400,000 tons, together ratio growth above 10%, and exceed resources supply quantity more than 60,000 ton, cause local rubber stock the quantity be obvious decrease.1~4 months natural rubber local yield and import the quantity is more than 55,000 tons and more than 436,000 tons respectively, together score don't small decrease and growth 2.5%, from here elucidation natural rubber supply still regard import as principle, to international gum City direct constitute benefit much push function.Consume aspect, 1~4 month local tire total amount yield is 92,130,000, together ratio show Zhao growth 27.5%, far far above rubber resources supply quantity growth range, from here elucidation use gum consume still prosperous, and to local gum City constitute stronger support function.

International gum City's being pre-eminent don't change

BE produce by Southeast Asia area disadvantageous weather influence, produce area gum a source supply still strain, the Tai produce the area RSS3 stock on hand gum price from 130 United Stateses cent/the kilogram soar to 139 the United States cent/kilogram, rise is 7%, but USD get in to add an interest period and cause dollar rate list the side soar, USD index number ascension go to 87.5:00 neighborhood Gao Wei4's district, gum in Tokyo from 136.5 yen/the kilogram soar to 148.8 yens/kilogram, rise is 9%, contrast it is thus clear that, gum rise in Tokyo exceed produce the area stock on hand gum price rise, elucidation gum in Tokyo rise power medium have 2% or so rise to come from USD ascension with the result that, Tokyo glue together to rise to have stronger finance property, but gum in Tokyo to produce the area stock on hand gum price premium on currency, again good enough to elucidation international gum City circulate in pre-eminent in.

On the Zong say, because of domestic and international gum City situation severity dry disaster weather, anticipate this year the natural rubber will appear supply peak season not prosperous phenomenon, the gum price still will continue to soar after the shallow return adjust.The Hu gum main force contract RU508 completion 13700~12600~13600 arc bottoms' soaring a target after being inside out will may attain an above 14000 dollars price.