Review of rubber in the first half of 2005 with the city shortly after forecast

In the first half of 2005, a number of authorities and the media on the natural rubber market is relatively uniform evaluation: supply and demand increases, prices remain strong, rapid consumption of inventory, supply and demand balance in 2004 following the transition period, in favor of a new round of Owners of the natural rubber market is taking shape, domestic natural rubber prices will continue to perform counter-seasonal rise in prices.
According to state farms in Hainan Haikou Trade Center, e-commerce transactions provided by the Office of natural rubber stock trading information: Hainan reclamation area in the first half of 2005, a total of 8.4291 million tons of rubber sales, with the same period last year, compared to 7.6523 million tons, sales grew by 10.13 percent total 7768 tons. In the reclamation area once suffered drought, are still in mid-May to 1 / 3 production Jiaoyuan not open or were forced to cut off cut, to achieve sales growth did not come easily. In the first half Guadan traded as high as 70% over the previous 4-year increase of 18 percentage points, in particular the five or six months Guadan traded as high as 90% of the market can be seen increasingly popular good.
Rubber prices are low close of last year, according to this year opened on a track running low, has fallen to below 12,000 yuan per ton. January 12 occurred on January 9, 2003 the lowest since the international rubber on the 5th and sold 11,650 yuan per ton, when people are worried Jiaojia will break 11,000 yuan, an integrated rubber on the whole the average price per ton only 1.2017 million ton with the same period last year, compared to 1.4076 million, are below 2,000 tons, down very significantly. From the beginning to open on March 15 only, Jiaojia has been up and down around 12,600 yuan per ton. It is encouraging that the March 16 start up and break through the 13,000 yuan mark, as long as two months out of the downturn trend for people to re-glue of this year, the city would like to see. Right on cue, by the end of June this year, the average price of an integrated rubber reclamation area has reached 1.3356 yuan per ton, although the first half of last year an average of 1.4309 yuan per ton there is quite a gap, but on the whole than the whole of last year the average price per 1.3346 million tons more than a 10. What is gratifying is that the trend of last year Jiaojia On the contrary, is the first year after the high-low average in the first half of 1.4309 yuan per ton, while in the second half of an average of only 1.2847 million; this year, but North Korea after the first low-Jan reverse the steady high Walk, 5, at the end of the international rubber has been broken 14,700 yuan per ton, and stand firm. In 2004 the industry is that the natural rubber supply and demand balance during the transition period, during the transition period after the plastic most of the city of pessimism, but the fact that on the contrary, the supply and demand balance after the transition has shown a great one situation, there are indications that we have reason to be optimistic about market outlook, I hope A new round of supply and demand relations in a beneficial owner of the rubber direction. According to statistics, domestic natural rubber market has been liberalized since 1994, the highest average price for an integrated rubber in 1995 was 1.3923 yuan per ton, when the international price of natural rubber is 1450 U.S. dollars per ton, and now the international Jiaojia has reached 1498 U.S. dollars per ton . Trading Center in Shanghai, according to information provided by the Office of the Shanghai Stock only natural rubber futures more than 3000 tons, has been unable to compete for the spot with the consumer market; add to the Vietnam border trade carried out to rectify the fight against smuggling, and other positive factors, China's natural rubber market environment will be improved, Is conducive to China-made plastic in order to compete on an equal footing as part of the international division of labor, the realization of the price with international practice.
Jiaojia steadily from the low this year of high following the most fundamental reason why the market is supply and demand have changed. By the global impact of the drought, the world's natural rubber accounting for nearly 38% of the total output of the first half of Thailand is also troubled by drought, the original export orders could not supply on time, in order to avoid violations punished and forced from the Singapore spot market purchases at high prices; despite Indonesia This year will also continue to increase, but the problems facing the more prominent, such as: the western side of Sumatra leaves signs of the weather; over the past few years to reduce the area of rubber plantations, many of the farmers in order to obtain faster return on beds and palm trees, an increase of stamina also weaken And so on. Changes in market supply and demand, natural rubber owners control the market step by step show initiative. In May 2005 in Chiang Mai, Thailand held a meeting of the International Rubber, Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra said: will do our best to push rubber prices up to 60 baht per kilogram (that is 1500 U.S. dollars per ton). Thai rubber by the end of June to offer the spot has reached 1498 U.S. dollars per ton, basically Thai Prime Minister.
It is worth mentioning: the general good of the city of rubber, latex concentrate market is particularly prominent. According to statistics, from 1994 to 2004, the reclamation area concentrated emulsion (including by-product of plastic glue-ching) rubber sales account for only 15% of total sales, latex with the same fresh produce latex concentrate, the standard used in the production of plastic can earn per ton 1428.48 yuan, and total average rubber reclamation for the prices of the page Xian 3 percentage points, with an average price of 1.4890 yuan per ton than the standard plastic products an average price of 1.2901 yuan per ton earn 1989 yuan on the market and the latex prices continue to be optimistic about . AP, Wushi two large latex brand has taken advantage of emerging, the market has become popular. Therefore, the group should be based on market demand, the use of the established manufacturers of latex concentrate production capacity to gradually increase the production of latex concentrate, as a whole in order to improve the operational effectiveness of the natural rubber.
With the easing of the drought, high into the second half of the period to increase the supply of resources, prices may drop slightly, but there are many positive factors supporting a strong, integrated average price of rubber this year is still possible to approach or exceed the highest in 1995 .