Rubber supply and demand in the domestic market to improve the relationship between the market outlook facing the turmoil

In May this year, the domestic rubber consumption is more robust, new resources, only a slight increase in market supply and demand improved digestion and a large number of stock futures, which led to pre-rubber prices rebound.

Add a slight increase in resources

In the first half of this year, China's rubber resources to add the same period last year largely unchanged, a slight increase. According to statistics, 1-5 this year, national resources for the new rubber is about 1,710,000 tons, more than 1% increase over the same period last year. In the first two months, new rubber resources more year-on-year decline. From the beginning of March, new resources and gradually increased in May only to have been completely reversed the decline in the same period last year.

Domestic production

Although from the beginning of May, domestic natural rubber producing areas step by step into the production season, but the largest producing areas in Hainan, some time ago suffered a serious drought, natural rubber production and market volume has been greatly affected, it is estimated that national production of about 5.5 10,000 tons.

Synthetic production increased slightly. In the first half of this year, the new limited production capacity and supply of raw materials, synthetic rubber production in the country to increase much. According to statistics, the first 5 months of this year, the national production of synthetic rubber 630,800 tons, only 4.7 percent increase over the same period last year.

January-May, the national rubber production is about 740,000 tons more than last year's 3.4 percent increase over the same period.

Foreign imports

Rubber imports declined slightly. According to customs statistics, the first 5 months, the country imported 968,400 tons of rubber types of the same period last year decreased 0.8 percent.

Rubber imports constitute, in May import 90,000 tons of natural rubber, dropped 20,000 tons; import 84,500 tons of synthetic rubber, also dropped more than 20,000 tons. 1-5 months of imports of 540,000 tons of natural rubber, synthetic rubber imports of 428,000 tons, respectively, over the same period last year and 4.6 percent decline 6.8 percent.

Consumer demand is strong

Although the 2 countries in the quarter adopt a number of macro-control measures to curb demand, but the main bubble, the authenticity of the consumer have not changed. Various economic indicators continue to run high during which, in particular with the rubber consumption is closely related to the production of rubber tires, and so has maintained rapid growth. According to statistics, this year's January to May, the National tire production 117,350,000 the same period last year, up 27%; tire production in May of which 26,640,000, an increase of 28.6 percent.

In rubber production to stimulate growth, in May before the rubber consumption continued to show strong growth pattern, it is estimated that close to 2,000,000 tons, an increase of more than 15%.

Market price movements co-exist

Tapping into the period, despite the new glue to gradually increase the amount listed, but the main producing areas of serious drought, there are more difficult to increase production, the price of natural rubber to form a strong support; synthetic rubber because of high prices, to a certain extent, curbed consumer demand, Market prices continued to go down. According to the data show that in May, the key areas to monitor the standard natural rubber on the 5th of plastic, the average price of about 12,940 yuan / ton, roughly flat with last month.

Not much increase in production because of drought, natural rubber prices in all areas risen. According to statistics estimated that in April in Hainan, Yunnan and the two major rubber producing areas last month were up 2.45 percent and 0.49 percent; Chugeng this year is up 12% and 5.3%.

Despite the new listing a large number of plastic pressure, but by improving the supply and demand support, Shanghai Rubber futures prices strengthened again. It is estimated that 5 to the end of this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange for three months (on 6, 7, 8), the average contract settlement price of 13,482 yuan / ton.

In the past 5 months the overall market situation, domestic natural rubber price has gained momentum, synthetic rubber prices remained low, the two major types of rubber price has been reduced, but still higher than the price of synthetic rubber natural rubber prices, the average price at 800 / Tons.

Market in the second half outlook

Supply and demand continue to improve. 4 from the 2004 quarter, domestic rubber consumption to keep the market strong demand for new resources to increase slightly or even decline, the market supply and demand improved, in 2004 carried over to absorb a large number of excess inventory, resulting in the preceding period of price Up. Is expected in the second half of the rubber supply and demand will continue to improve.

Increased uncertainties. Although the second half of the Chinese rubber market supply and demand continues to improve, but it does not necessarily mean that market prices will firm up. Domestic natural rubber production season just around the corner, growing a new listing of natural rubber price trend will have a pressure. In addition, the U.S. dollar and the RMB exchange rate to appreciate or uncertainty, but also to the rubber market in the second half to add a lot of variables.

The improvement in the fundamentals of natural rubber, synthetic rubber production costs increase, the two types of rubber upside down prices and exchange rate changes are intertwined, making rubber prices in the second half again more volatility even more possible.