Self-supply crisis caused rubber prices

In the oil price hit a new high of 60 U.S. dollars a backdrop, the market's own rubber supply situation extremely nervous to play again under the effect of strong profits and more, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber futures in a row to surge the way, pulling the world's natural rubber prices higher.

Needs to maintain strong

In Tokyo rose for the period Gum stimulation, the South-East Asia in particular, on the 3rd spot Jiaojia Yan Pianjiao since May all the way up to 1500 U.S. dollars / ton. Then in June, the market entered a stage of adjustment in the trend, the whole market here is very strong atmosphere of wait-and-see, on the one hand, we believe that the early rise of the natural rubber market, both in the international market or the domestic market and dry weather factors that drought One tapping the weather had returned to normal work, and gradually reduce the pressure on supply in the context of Jiaojia is expected to come down. At this time has gradually become the mainstream of the world's gum on the 20th of the kind of standard rubber (STR20) has been quoted in the 1270 to 1280 U.S. dollars / ton, the major suppliers in Europe and the United States market, a number of long-term orders, and even then its monthly output of the basic Line has been occupied by the fixed-term contracts; Thailand because of its Route Yan Pianjiao always quote in 1500 U.S. dollars / ton in the vicinity, from Europe and the United States and Japan by trade buying favor. And buying only from China to Indonesia on the 20th procurement standard plastic (SIR20). China's buying the once relatively concentrated in the May 1 long before a large-scale procurement, since until mid-June are in wait-and-see mode, but the domestic tire business turnover in the stock can only maintain a half months , To 6 in the second half saw no hope of the international Jiaojia down and had to launch a new round of procurement. Therefore the supply of raw materials in the international market against the backdrop of extreme tension, have to constantly raise the price of the ways to curb strong demand.

Supply crisis

5, 6 in the month of the traditional tapping of the season, Jiaojia has been high, in addition to strong demand, an important link in the supply of the reasons for his is still a serious problem. 4, 5 pre-production for the month of dry weather led to the global output, including internal Hainan is also the main producing areas due to drought and the impact of tapping. In June to enter the Southeast Asian region just to ease the drought, the traditional approach of the rainy season in a timely manner, the continuity of the continuous rainfall has affected the normal operations of tapping, leading to production re-emergence of unstable, especially in the main producing areas in Thailand five or six month supply of raw materials Continued tension.

Thailand this year, a number of traders due to the early signing of a number of medium and long-term contract price in a row against a backdrop of rising, there may be a lack of performance and bankruptcy. Last week, Thai raw materials rose, the main incentive is spot on the one hand, the impact of China started buying back the procurement market, while Japanese rubber futures contract in June to face the spot delivery, the goods can be no settlement short of a rough - Positions to promote continuous period of high prices. Last Thursday and Friday for two days, the international spot market prices rose on the 3rd Yan Pianjiao 1520 U.S. dollars / ton, while the major suppliers China and Japan on the 20th marked Indonesia's rubber buyers in the frantic rush to buy is also under rapid breakthrough 1300 U.S. dollars To 1320 U.S. dollars / ton.

At present, the international spot market, Thailand Route Yan Pianjiao offer in 1500 U.S. dollars / ton, China's consumption of buying natural barriers, and Thai rubber was marked on the 20th in Europe and America Buyer's medium and long-term contracts to lock, only Indonesia on the 20th Standard plastic can spot the world's supply of the consumer market. To enter in August, along with Indonesia's tradition of tapping off-season arrival of the rainy season in Indonesia will force the sharp shrinkage of production, so shortly after the international spot market supply crisis will gradually appearing.

Reduction of inventory in a row

So far this year, the world's rubber stock average water a decline in a row. According to the Rubber Trade Association of Japan data, as of June 10, Japan's non-rubber warehouse inventories totaled 10,575 tons, representing a May 31 dropped 11,744 tons of 10% since April 1963 the lowest point since trigger for the market Whether the supply can meet the needs of panic. In such a panic effect, constantly buying into the rough Tokyo Commodity Exchange rubber in the futures market speculation and hedge against inflation. On the domestic market since last year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange RU407 massive delivery contracts, 230,000 tons of inventory levels at one time the world's largest inventory dominant, and with the steady growth in demand since last year on the period of natural rubber stock has been declining. Four or five months of this year began, stocks began to speed up the rate of decrease, on June 24 in Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of natural rubber totaled only 25,520 tons higher than on June 17 to reduce 5270 tons, down 17.11 percent, while the inventory levels last year, only When the peak of 10%.

The rubber market is showing a profit of more than effect, a bit similar to the copper since the second half of last year. The spot market supply have been signs of the crisis, we can in a row from the reduction in inventory levels seen at the same time this year, is not optimistic about the weather, either drought or continuous days of rain, will make 2005 the world's rubber output Greatly reduced. The gap between supply and demand has begun to benefit more effect in the market show that in the traditional natural rubber tapping season out of the bull market is reasonable.