Tight supply and demand high prices is difficult under the rubber market analysis

Although the rubber market has been strong since the August rise in prices has come to an end, once the prices start to fall, but the tight supply and demand and high oil prices on the price of rubber to form a strong support of various types of rubber prices relatively stable. It is expected that this pattern of change in a short period of time is difficult, at a higher price on the basis of lingering volatility will be the main market of rubber afternoon.

Add a small increase in resources

In 2005, domestic resources and basically has a small rubber growth. According to relevant statistics for the calculation, a total of the first three quarters of this year, new rubber resources in the country is about 3,430,000 tons, up 4.7 percent. Of these, 1,420,000 tons of natural rubber, up 5.6 percent; 2,010,000 tons of synthetic rubber, up 4.1 percent. September new resources about 470,000 tons, an increase of 13.2 percent.

In 2005, China's natural rubber production has suffered serious natural disasters, the main producing areas in Hainan is the first drought after a typhoon, some of the production areas. 3 in the first quarter, domestic natural rubber production is estimated at around 430,000 tons, year-on-year decrease. China in the fourth quarter for the off-season production of natural rubber, not production. It is estimated that natural rubber production of 590,000 tons, below last year's level. Synthetic production increased steadily. According to statistics, a total of the first three quarters of this year, the National synthetic rubber production 1,190,000 tons, up 9.5 percent, in September yield 139,400 tons, an increase of 17.4 percent, and raise the level of growth. Since the second half of the year, significantly higher than that of synthetic rubber production in the first half. It is estimated that synthetic rubber production at about 1,600,000 tons more than last year grew about 8 percent. The first three quarters of the national rubber production is about 1,620,000 tons, up 6.3 percent. It is estimated that all types of rubber production in about 2,200,000 tons, 5.7 percent increase over the previous year.

This year, China's rubber imports have maintained a slight growth. According to customs statistics, a total of the first three quarters, the national imports of various types of rubber 1,810,000 tons, up 2%, which in previous years, with substantial growth in the formation of a great contrast. However, it is worth noting that into the third quarter, the rubber imports increased. If the country in September for all types of rubber imports 247,900 tons, 13.8 percent growth the previous month, up 17.7 percent. This is the second consecutive month of double-digit growth level. Rubber imports constitute, a total of the first three quarters, imports 990,000 tons of natural rubber, synthetic rubber imports of 820,000 tons, respectively, year-on-year growth rate of 7% and 2.8% decline. One September natural rubber imports 140,000 tons, 20,000 tons increase in the previous month, up 16.7 percent; import 110,000 tons of synthetic rubber, 10.3 percent growth the previous month Le up 19%.

Consumer demand is strong

In 2005, China's economy continues to grow rapidly in the first three quarters year-on-year GDP growth of 9.4 percent, fixed-asset investment, industrial production, foreign trade and economic cooperation, have maintained a high level of growth. In the first three quarters, the national tire production (including all kinds of tire, the same below) 223,800,000, an increase of 29%, an increase of momentum is very strong. Tire production in September of which 24,270,000, an increase of 19%. Annual production is expected to close crossings Le 300,000,000 an increase of more than 25%.

In rubber production to promote strong growth, the domestic rubber consumption to continue strong growth. It is estimated that the first three quarters of all types of rubber consumption in the country no less than 3,600,000 tons, an increase of more than 15%, very strong consumer demand, Le obviously beyond the amount of new supply over the same period, in part by lack of resolve to digest inventory. It is estimated that the consumption of rubber in more than 4,600,000 tons. One of the natural rubber consumption reached or more than 2,000,000 tons.

Market prices continue to rise

The tense relationship between supply and demand, as well as soaring oil prices, stimulate the market fully prices rose sharply. An important means of production, according to Commerce Department data show that the market monitoring system, in September, key areas to monitor the standard natural rubber on the 5th of plastic, the average price of about 16,350 yuan (price tons, the same below), made early this year rose 28.3 percent; Rosin-SBR is about the average price of 14,925 yuan, up 11.6 percent; butadiene rubber is about the average price of 15,720 yuan, up 12.7 percent.

As the prices of natural rubber Buzhang into the third quarter, higher than that of natural rubber to synthetic rubber prices, the prices of two major types of rubber upside down completely reverse the abnormal situation.

August Hainan, Yunnan, the two major rubber producing areas of the price of 15,756 yuan and 15,393 yuan over the beginning of this year rose 0.03 percent and a decrease of 1.3 percent, a slight trend of take-off and landing, but the year-on-year rise of 23.56 % And 25.56%, continue to increase, prices continue to rise in September.

In the spot price of driving under the Shanghai rubber futures prices continued to rise. According to the data of the calculation, 9 at the end of this year, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the average three-month contract settled at 17,390 yuan, at the end of last month rose 7.6 percent over the beginning of this year rose 45%, more robust gains.