Natural rubber price trend forecast

Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Chiang Mai a few days ago at an international meeting on rubber, natural rubber producing countries should be combined into one in order to ensure the maintenance of Jiaojia in the "health"; at the same time that Thailand will do our best to push the price of natural rubber rose 50 baht per kg more than 60 baht. Indonesia has also recently said that the producers brewing in the July launch of a price mechanism to reduce the Synthetic and natural rubber for the difference between the, glue and said the price could be marked in 1.5 U.S. dollars per kg from top to bottom. Prices of natural rubber which can greatly push up the current rubber industry is worth close attention.

Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia in 2002 to set up a joint venture of the International Union Rubber Co., Ltd. (IRCO). The company on the stock of natural rubber, the export trade, international city and rubber production and marketing areas for Jiaojia control, in order to support rubber prices. In view of the natural rubber production in the three countries account for about 70 percent of global production, in the international market with a decisive position, it was suggested that the Prime Minister of Thailand raised, as well as a call echoed Indonesia and other countries, is likely to go around the world natural rubber prices. In addition, the high price of natural rubber this year also have a number of positive factors.

In 2004, the world's natural rubber output of 8,220,000 tons, the consumption of 8,290,000 tons, and consumption over production for the first time. Experts predict that the world's natural rubber output in the future will hold a slight increase trend in exports of resources will gradually decline. Malaysia's oil palm to reduce natural rubber switch to adjust the industrial structure has come to an end and achieved initial results in the past by the beginning of the natural rubber product into the largest exporter of natural rubber processing exports, importing countries in the early product. Thailand, Indonesia is the world's two largest natural rubber production and export of products at the beginning, but as to speed up the process of industrialization and industrial restructuring is expected in a few years later, its exports will gradually decline. Vietnam, Cambodia and other countries of natural rubber production, with its rubber planting area of the expansion will be greatly increased, but its production is not. India's natural rubber production will be basically stable in the continued growth slightly, but still can not meet domestic demand. China's climate and other factors, natural rubber is expected to yield much growth potential. However, in order to the world China's tire industry as represented by the rapid development of natural rubber demand, consumption growth has been significantly higher than production growth. Experts predict that in the next 10 years, the world's natural rubber will be in short supply.

Contradictions between supply and demand of natural rubber this year is likely to increase. On the one hand, the world's largest rubber producing countries Thailand as a result of drought weather, Jiaojia relatively strong. 90% of Thailand's natural rubber produced in the southern region, but in the region since February tapping into the off-season, has been tightening the supply of natural rubber, are tapping the low season is over, but the drought-affected supply has not yet returned to normal levels. Exporters said that if the unusually dry weather continues, they may be asked to postpone the shipment overseas buyers. Due to severe drought areas in Hainan, domestic natural rubber production can not influence. On the other hand, Synthetic and natural rubber price upside down, and users to adopt more natural rubber.

From the above analysis, a certain period of time in the future, the existence of natural rubber prices rising and the conditions of space. If this year IRCO bidding jointly with timing and place, it is highly possible to achieve.

But there are also many people in the country's rubber production of such efforts can be effective skeptical. Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia Despite the alliance, but three different situations. Thai rubber export to China in the near future performance of the firm; Malaysia, Indonesia and rubber exports mainly the United States, the relatively weak performance in the near future. As a result, the three countries reach a consensus, unified action more difficult. Early Synthetic international oil prices will fall, which would to some extent alleviate the pressure on the natural rubber market. Traders have said that Thailand called on other rubber producing countries will increase about 20% of Jiaojia, Synthetic and 60 baht per kg price to match, not easy to achieve unless there is in the hands of a large amount of money can buy this level And the maintenance of larger stocks. However, Thailand and other countries due to various factors, the Government at this stage, taking huge amounts of money to support Jiaojia somewhat too.